Los Angeles County South Bay Beach Cities Real Estate $$$ Transacted for November 2007
When I started recording monthly real estate $$$ volume for selected Los Angeles County zip codes on this blog, I was hoping that the trends would serve as a decent predictor of home prices. I have come to believe that $$$ volume overall is a very good predictor. November is the sickest looking month I've seen yet in two years of blogging.
I realize November is not quite over in terms of sales reporting, but I will assume that Melissa Data starts reporting December next week. If my charts are too early, it is highly doubtful there will be that many extra sales added on and I will just correct the charts when I do the December charts.
Dollar volume in many zip codes isn't just heading over a cliff; dollar volume is headed into the abyss. Parts of Los Angeles are in freefall, in terms of real estate $$$ transacted. Beach cities are weakening. This is not just normal seasonal slowdown. The housepocalypse is creeping ever closer.
OFHEO has announced that the conforming loan limit will stay for the 3rd year in a row at $417,000, so there will be no increase that would allow Californians to get any more in over their heads. Of course CAR is upset about this. According to CAR's PR blather, the refusal to raise the conforming loan limit denies Californians the opportunity of homeownership. My suggestion to CAR would be to ensure that buyers buy within their means and not "qualify" with stupid loans. The way I interpret CAR's PR is that what will actually be denied are opportunities for real estate commissions should sales continue to deteriorate. CAR would rather blame OFHEO than admit that people have been paying too much for housing. Overpaying is as true here as in much of the rest of California.
Now on to this month's results. The only zip codes that show substantial sales volume increases YOY are: 90094 (Playa Vista); 90401, 90402, and 90405 (Santa Monica); and 90501 (Torrance). Volume is too small to be measured statistically well for one month, particularly in Santa Monica. The only zip codes that show noticeable $$$ volume increases YOY are: 90036 (Park La Brea); 90045 (Westchester); 90094 (Playa Vista); 90254 (Hermosa Beach); 90401 and 90402 (Santa Monica); and 90501 (Torrance). Mighty 90064 (Rancho Park), which has been running on steroids this year, has taken quite a hit this month.
Until I see what next spring delivers I don't want to say the housepocalypse has landed on our doorsteps. As I write this, federal and state officials are furiously at work to stem the tsunami of foreclosures. Although I don't believe it will ultimately work, the politicians just may succeed in kicking the can down the road and delay the inevitable a while longer. In the meantime, take a look at the data.
My data measurements in the lists below are experimental and can be hard to interpret. For example, both the YOY comparisons and the "Relative Strength" lists show the beach cities as having suffered both recent and long-term pain in terms of dollar volume, but we know that prices appear to be more resilient than, say, prices in South Central Los Angeles. Yet some zip codes of South Central show that they've suffered much less in terms of chronic pain. So why does 90047 show more Relative Stength than the beach cities? If you look at the charts for 90047, you'll see a relatively recent steep plunge in the dollar volume chart, with lots of fat area well above 0% on the YOY chart, with not a whole lot of area yet below 0%. But if you look at the beach cities charts below, you'll see some thinner spiky areas above 0% on the YOY chart, and a few places the YOY line actually touched 0% before things started to fall apart. And, even though there have been insane appreciation rates in the beach cities in recent years, the truth is that sales volume has been declining for years, even before the housing bust, whereas sales volumes were increasing in places like South Central. These factors make for somewhat different outcomes in measuring that Relative Strength.
By the time this debacle is over, little of this will make much difference. Does it matter much if you die by a million paper cuts or by 2 million paper cuts?
Remember, the YOY numbers are not taken on the raw numbers, they are taken on the doubly smooth 3 month moving average. They lag the raw data somewhat.
Realtors fat and happy... 90094 66.0% Playa Vista 90293 24.5% Playa del Rey 90064 20.0% Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90254 15.0% Hermosa Beach Not to shabby, considering... 90291 3.4% Venice 90277 3.0% Redondo Beach (south) 90045 2.8% Westchester Hanging in there... 90505 0.5% Torrance Losing a grip... 90275 -4.6% Palos Verdes Estates 90277-90278 -6.2% Redondo Beach combined 90008 -7.1% Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park Slip sliding away... beach cities -10.2% 4 Beach Cities combined 90278 -12.7% Redondo Beach (north) 90732 -17.6% San Pedro/Rancho PV 90266 -17.6% Manhattan Beach 90401-90405 -19.6% Santa Monica combined 90066 -19.8% Mar Vista 90503 -23.7% Torrance SW county -25.2% Southwest L.A. County 90035 -25.6% West Fairfax 90036 -25.8% Park La Brea 90019 -25.8% Country Club Park/Mid City 90230 -26.7% Culver City 90501 -29.8% Torrance Sliding over a cliff... 90501-90505 -31.6% Torrance Combined 90034 -32.7% Palms 90292 -33.3% Marina del Rey 90232 -33.7% Culver City 90717 -36.5% Lomita 90245 -37.3% El Segundo 90056 -39.0% Ladera Heights 90007 -39.1% South Central 90250 -39.8% Hawthorne 90504 -41.9% Torrance Off the cliff, Thelma and Louise style... 90016 -55.2% West Adams 90304 -57.2% Lennox 90301 -58.2% Inglewood 90047 -59.2% South Central 90745 -60.2% Carson 90302 -63.8% Inglewood 90043 -64.3% Hyde Park, Windsor Hills 90062 -64.5% South Central 90044 -65.4% Athens 90260 -66.0% Lawndale 90301-90305 -66.5% Inglewood/Lennox combined 90746 -66.9% Carson 90502 -67.0% Torrance 90303 -68.9% Inglewood 90249 -71.1% Gardena 90018 -72.1% Jefferson Park 90305 -74.0% Inglewood 90037 -76.9% South Central 90744 -224.1% Wilmington
This is a longer-term view of the strength of dollar volume, for this month with 4.7 being the strongest (suffering the least amount of chronic pain) and 0.0 being the weakest (suffering the most chronic pain). Think of it is as the area above 0 on the YOY graph with the area below 0 of the YOY graph subtracted out.
90094 4.7 Playa Vista 90305 3.0 Inglewood 90044 2.0 Athens 90034 1.8 Palms 90746 1.7 Carson 90292 1.6 Marina del Rey 90047 1.3 South Central 90062 1.2 South Central 90301-90305 1.2 Inglewood/Lennox combined 90502 1.1 Torrance 90304 1.1 Lennox 90018 1.1 Jefferson Park 90007 1.1 South Central 90303 1.0 Inglewood 90745 1.0 Carson 90016 1.0 West Adams 90302 1.0 Inglewood 90301 1.0 Inglewood 90250 0.9 Hawthorne 90037 0.9 South Central 90732 0.8 San Pedro/Rancho PV 90043 0.8 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills 90293 0.8 Playa del Rey 90019 0.7 Country Club Park/Mid City 90501 0.7 Torrance 90249 0.7 Gardena 90008 0.6 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park 90230 0.6 Culver City SW county 0.6 Southwest L.A. County 90503 0.6 Torrance 90260 0.6 Lawndale 90064 0.6 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90291 0.6 Venice 90254 0.5 Hermosa Beach 90036 0.5 Park La Brea 90501-90505 0.5 Torrance Combined 90045 0.5 Westchester 90278 0.4 Redondo Beach (north) 90232 0.4 Culver City 90245 0.4 El Segundo 90066 0.4 Mar Vista 90035 0.3 West Fairfax 90277-90278 0.3 Redondo Beach combined 90056 0.3 Ladera Heights 90505 0.3 Torrance 90401-90405 0.3 Santa Monica combined 90717 0.3 Lomita beach cities 0.3 4 Beach Cities combined 90266 0.2 Manhattan Beach 90277 0.2 Redondo Beach (south) 90504 0.2 Torrance 90275 0.1 Palos Verdes Estates 90744 0.0 Wilmington
For details on individual zip codes, visit my regional tracker, or my Google map tool of most of the same data. I cover most zip codes south of the 10 freeway and west of the 10. For zip code comparisons (the two lists above), I include some surrounding areas such as Carson, Park La Brea, Fairfax district, etc.