Thursday, April 26, 2007

Redondo Beach preforeclosure and foreclosure activity

I am trying to get my brain back in gear for posting to this blog, and thought I'd present a listing of properties whose owners have been undergoing financial distress this year. This does not include properties in some sort of tax default, as I have not had time to do those lookups.

This list is derived in part from Realtytrac (via email) and in part from The Cortez Group, a Diamond Bar realty (Southland area foreclosures link on the sidebar).

I only recently started forming this list, and don't have an easy way to compare the financial distress activity now to what was going on a year ago, so although I might say in my heart of hearts that I think real estate activity due to financial distress is up considerably, I really don't have a way of quantifying that.

The address number and street names are reversed to protect the innocent and the guilty. The first date is the reporting date, which might be the date a mortgage loan went delinquent or a notice of default was recorded. The second date, if provided, is the date a property went on or will go on the foreclosure auction block.

Not all properties in preforeclosure go into foreclosure, or even get listed for sale, for that matter. Most people want to keep their houses. Apparently, lenders out there are still lending bailout money. Out of this list of 30 properties, I can find six that are showing up in current MLS listings. That's 20%.

8122      Swehtham Avenue     2007-04-21      2007-05-02
5142      Rellefekcor Lane    2007-04-21
1081      Notlef  Lane        2007-04-21
3361      Senyah  Lane        2007-04-21                    (6)     
6021      Egdnir  Lane        2007-04-06                    (1)
6002      Dnalhur Avenue      2007-03-29
1172      Dn281   Place       2007-03-21                    (2)
3142      Tnarg   Avenue      2007-03-21                    
5152      Eigenrac Lane       2007-03-16
8122      Seehroov Avenue     2007-03-16
6082      Naibcm  Avenue      2007-03-05                    (3)
6072      Noslen  Avenue      2007-03-05      2007-03-14    (5)
1291      Aisetra Boulevard   2007-03-05      2007-03-14
7181      Drofnats Avenue     2007-03-01
5021   S. Anilatac Avenue     2007-03-01      2007-04-05
6071      Enroh Nav Lane      2007-02-24
8042      Rellefekcor Lane    2007-02-23
3252      Tlibrednav Lane     2007-02-15
0152      Ruomra  Lane        2007-02-07
2022      Notgnitnuh Lane     2007-02-05      2007-02-23
3142      Namirrah Lane       2007-02-05      2007-02-14
3152      Swehtham Avenue     2007-01-29      2007-02-08
81581     Eladsgnik Avenue    2007-01-29      2007-02-08    (4)
2112      Kralc Lane          2007-01-28      2007-04-05
308       Relgalf Lane        2007-01-28
9062      Sitruc Avenue       2007-01-28
206       Nalehp Lane         2007-01-22      2007-02-06
32581     Nirub Avenue        2007-01-16
042 N.    Atinauj Avenue      2007-01-03      2007-05-09
4142      Noslen Avenue       2007-01-02      2007-01-11

The property marked (1) is 2,804 square feet with 5 bedrooms and 4 baths. It was sold for $1,165,000 in July 2005, and is currently listed for sale at $1,275,000.

(2) is currently listed for sale for $679,000. I am unable to find any prior sale history.

(3) is currently listed for sale at $655,000. It sold previously on 10/28/2005 for $709,000.

(4) is currently listed for sale at $719,000. There is a recent sale on this property on 02/28/2007 for $595,853 (possibly an auction). Apparently it is a hot potato, and somebody is trying to make out like a bandit here.

(5) is currently listed for sale at $599,900. It is currently bank owned. There is a sale recorded on 03/23/2007 for $558,000, another hot potato. This is probably located in one of the worst parts of north Redondo.

(6) is currently listed for sale at $619,950. The listing says it has been remodeled. The only recent sales information I can find says it sold 06/16/2005 for $650,000, and prior to that, 09/07/2004 for $520,000. If this is a real remodel, the remodeler must have gotten this property somehow at a steep discount that doesn't show up in the sale records. I can't figure out how you profit when you buy a property at $650K, remodel it, then try unloading it at less than $620K.

By the way, if we housing bears believe that people with bad credit histories are going to be blocked from buying a home in the future, we may need to rethink that assumption. Did you know that those holding bad credit can now purchase a good credit record? I am not joking. Apparently, those with excellent credit ratings can rent out their credit card account for a cut of a rental fee. The renter does not get access to the account or card, but just the credit score. It's amazing what tricks they keep coming up with to continue kicking this can up the road, isn't it? You can read about it in this Star Tribune article.

Friday, April 20, 2007

Other measures of beach cities market activity, March 2007

Shorewood has provided March numbers.

The average DOM for the beach cities, by Shorewood calculations, is 55. That's about 34% higher than March 2006 DOM. DOM has declined by 8% since February, but for a market that is *supposed* to be recovering, I would expect it to be much lower.

I have not had any time to do any DOM calculations on Redondo Beach data for March, and am not sure I'll be able to get to it by the end of this month, but I will try to get it done so we can always compare what we are being told by realtors and the media to what the data tells us. I will say, though, that in the recent sales I've seen, I expect DOM to come down somewhat. My calculation for Redondo has been roughly double what Shorewood reports.

Here is my homegrown measure of beach cities "supply strength", which takes a ratio of inventory and sales. For the beach cities, it has (by pointing down) been recovering over the winter months. The trend started leveling off in February, but has continued down in March. With listings expiring over the winter months, that shrank inventory, bringing the ratio down.

From about mid-March through Easter, the rate at which new inventory was coming on the market had slowed quite a bit, but after Easter it has started to pick up again. March was the first month in ages that sales outpaced new inventory. April will probably be another good sales month (though not as blockbuster as March). I don't think that sales will outpace new inventory in April, but we shall see. There are plenty of old listings being relisted (which I don't count as new inventory). I have reason to believe the psychological backlog is still there.

Just keep in mind that what I graph in the chart is Shorewood's definition of inventory. By their numbers the I-S/S ratio is starting to look very tight again, isn't it? It looks like 2005 all over again, but it sure doesn't feel like 2005. When I talk about Redondo inventory I am talking about all the unresolved listings I have sitting in my records, which vastly outnumber the "official" MLS listings.

Here is the median price of a home sold in the beach cities in March. I would trust this more than what DataQuick tells us, because this data is an aggregation of the four beach cities and forms a larger dataset so small number errors don't cause a problem. It is continuing off a low from January. I have also plotted a simple moving average.

This last chart is the %YOY change on the simple moving average of the median price.

Overall, I'd say that with credit standards tighter and prices barely down from a year ago, this is hardly an environment for any sort of sustainable recovery in the housing market. Contrary to what realtors may tell you about how "healthy" this market has been, this market is sick and it has been for years, catching the virus of super easy credit and mania mentality.

South Bay Resale Activity for March 2007

My apologies for such a long absence. This weekend I am going to try to spend a little time trying to get this blog caught up with the housing market news.

Long-time readers know that I am not super crazy about the way DataQuick reports data. You can read about my complaints in prior postings, but the gist of my gripe is that sales are broken out into zip codes and by housing unit type, which fragments the data into small numbers for which statistics are not necessarily reliable. Nevertheless, here are the numbers for March, because I like keeping complete records of such data:

                          SFR   MEDIAN   %YOY    CONDO  MEDIAN   %YOY  
LA/Westchester    90045   23    $763     -4.1%     7     $360   -18.6%  
El Segundo        90245   11    $859     -0.9%     4     $641     9.7% 
Hawthorne         90250   30    $540      6.3%     4     $419    -5.0%  
Hermosa Beach     90254   16  $1,170      1.5%    13     $934   -18.7%  
Lawndale          90260   12    $533      6.5%    10     $330     0.8%  
Manhattan Beach   90266   56  $1,600     -3.3%     3     $930   -35.3%  
Palos Verdes Pen. 90274   21  $1,534    -10.3%     1     $339   -30.5%  
Rancho P.V.       90275   44  $1,100      0.0%     3     $550    19.6%   
Redondo Beach     90277   18  $1,240     24.0%    23     $730     2.1%   
Redondo Beach     90278   32    $787      6.6%    36     $645    -4.2%  

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Real Estate $$$ Transacted through March 2007

Sorry for my long absence but I am preoccupied with other things right now. I am trying to help the L.A. County Carson animal shelter prepare for the Orange County Pet Expo, which we will attend on Saturday, April 14. Lots of dogs to pick out and try to get ready! I will be pretty busy for a while so my blogging activity will be somewhat sparse this month.

March looks like it was the best month that Redondo Beach, the beach cities, and Los Angeles county have had in at least a year. Sales volume was up sharply YOY in 90278 (north Redondo Beach), up moderately YOY in 90245 (El Segundo) and 90254 (Hermosa Beach), and down YOY in 90266 (Manhattan Beach) and 90277 (south Redondo Beach). On a raw basis, dollar volume is +27.4% YOY in 90245, +24.0% in 90254, down -18.8% in 90266, -19.0% in 90277, and up +68.3% in 90278. So the realtors that have been through a bit of famine are now feasting. 90278 has done so well that its YOY has pretty much closed the gap below 0% on a YOY basis on the moving average, and looks like it is about to poke back up through 0%. Whether it can sustain that increase remains to be seen, and for reasons I'll mention below I suspect it can't.

Other zip codes that did really well on a raw basis in March include 90275 (Rancho Palos Verdes), with sales volume just barely up YOY, but dollar volume up +23.3%;, 90717 (Lomita), with a situation similar to that of 90278 - sales volume up sharply and dollar volume up +34.0%; and San Pedro, with sales volume up and dollar volume up +34.4%. 90064 (Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills) pretty much matched last year in both sales and dollar volume.

Zip codes that obviously remain in a slump (or have recently entered a slump) are 90007, 90008, 90302, 90305, and 90094 (Playa Vista). The first four zip codes in particular could be especially affected by the subprime implosion.

Zip codes that are trying to rebound and whose %YOY on the moving average have just popped back above 0% include 90066 (Mar Vista), 90250 (Hawthorne), 90293 (Playa del Rey), and 90503 (Torrance). This is the second month back above 0% for Hawthorne, which contains the Centex Fusion project.

The remaining zip codes are in some sort of rebound with various degrees of success. 90249 (Gardena) has just dropped below 0%, as has 90303 (Inglewood).

Below are the relative rankings of most zip codes in southwest L.A. County. Remember that column 3 is an experimental "relative pain" ranking. This month the range is 0.1-4.4, with the low end meaning greater chronic pain and the high end meaning little chronic pain.

As an example of relative pain, take a look at the top of the list, where both Hawthorne (90250) and Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills (90064) both show +8.6% YOY. Hawthorne's relative pain is 1.1, but Rancho Park's is 0.3. If you look at the chart for Rancho Park, you can see this is the first time the YOY line has popped up above 0% in a year. But any weakness in Hawthorne is relatively recent.

90250          8.6%  1.1 Hawthorne
90064          8.6%  0.3 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills
90503          4.1%  0.6 Torrance
90066          3.0%  0.4 Mar Vista
90278         -1.0%  0.4 Redondo Beach (north)
90275         -1.5%  0.1 Palos Verdes Estates
90045         -2.6%  0.5 Westchester
90303         -3.1%  1.4 Inglewood
90249         -3.2%  1.0 Gardena
90293         -3.8%  0.6 Playa del Rey
90047         -5.7%  1.6 South Central
90277-90278  -11.4%  0.3 Redondo Beach combined
90746        -13.5%  2.1 Carson
90305        -15.8%  3.6 Inglewood
90501-90505  -16.2%  0.7 Torrance Combined
90291        -17.0%  0.6 Venice
beach cities -17.5%  0.3 4 Beach Cities combined
90035        -17.7%  0.6 West Fairfax
90230        -17.7%  0.8 Culver City
90732        -18.0%  0.8 San Pedro/Rancho PV
90266        -20.0%  0.3 Manhattan Beach
90301-90305  -20.5%  1.7 Inglewood/Lennox combined
90037        -20.6%  1.3 South Central
90501        -21.4%  0.9 Torrance
90044        -21.5%  2.3 Athens
90062        -21.7%  1.6 South Central
90301        -21.7%  1.4 Inglewood
90254        -21.7%  0.3 Hermosa Beach
90502        -22.2%  1.6 Torrance
90043        -22.6%  1.1 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills
90302        -22.7%  1.4 Inglewood
90277        -23.2%  0.1 Redondo Beach (south)
90504        -23.2%  0.5 Torrance
90717        -24.0%  0.5 Lomita
90401-90405  -24.1%  0.4 Santa Monica combined
90019        -25.7%  1.0 Country Club Park/Mid City
90505        -26.0%  0.3 Torrance
90036        -28.9%  0.5 Park La Brea
90245        -29.3%  0.6 El Segundo
90008        -32.4%  0.8 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park
90016        -33.0%  1.3 West Adams
90018        -33.4%  1.4 Jefferson Park
90232        -36.2%  0.7 Culver City
90292        -36.4%  1.8 Marina del Rey
90260        -37.5%  1.0 Lawndale
90034        -38.8%  1.9 Palms
90056        -41.4%  0.6 Ladera Heights
90304        -42.0%  1.4 Lennox
90745        -42.8%  1.4 Carson
90094        -46.3%  4.4 Playa Vista
90007        -56.5%  1.4 South Central
90744        -80.7%  0.8 Wilmington

I suspect that a portion of that spectacular performance in 90278 is due in part to financial crisis activity (property in preforclosure, a bank sale, or a tax default). I started noticing a few properties sold during March that has also had recorded sales in February, or at least since October. However, I need some hard numbers to back up my suspicions, so what I am currently doing is gathering data on the sales in March 2006, to see how many "suspicious" sales there were back then compared to those in March 2007. And by the way, I think it is very odd that when you go to Zillow and type in Redondo Beach, CA where it says City, State, OR ZIP, and then uncheck For Sale, Make Me Move, and All Other Homes so that only the Recently Sold are pulled up, then click the Sold On column to sort sales in descending order, there seems to be this big Redondo gap between 3/16/2007 and 3/31/2007. At least this is the state of Zillow right now while I am posting this. Where are all those spectacular sales???

Be sure to visit my Real Estate $$$ Tracker for details about a zip code you have curiousity in.