Preliminary look at October Redondo Beach sales, and sales and inventory snapshot for the year
Where are the high-end sales?
October 2007 sale records are in a dismal state, and I have low confidence in my numbers for this month. As the data is now, sale prices show a big decline, as do the median and average square footage. Given the rather chaotic nature of this market at the moment, I guess it's possible that prices really have undergone a dramatic decline, but my theory is that the sales data that has been initially reported for October is for the lower-end sales that have been clogged up in the sale pipeline due to mortgage acquisition problems and which are now completed, and that October sales reporting for the more problem-free escrows (high end) will come later. With sales so suddenly heavily weighted toward the low end I can't help but suspect there is either missing data, or the high end buyers have suddenly decided to pack up and leave town. So keep that in mind as you view these PRELIMINARY numbers (with extreme financial-stress outliers thrown out):
STAT APR 2007 MAY 2007 JUN 2007 JUL 2007 AUG 2007 SEP 2007 OCT 2007 records 114 91 62 78 51 68 37 MEDIAN $799,000 $777,000 $764,500 $860,000 $850,000 $857,000 $730,000 AVERAGE $884,271 $855,228 $830,711 $880,279 $867,925 $935,506 $716,062 MIN $470,000 $453,000 $485,000 $359,000 $365,000 $369,900 $369,900 MAX $1,750,000 $1,640,000 $1,565,000 $2,299,000 $1,510,000 $2,400,000 $1,242,000
So far I only have about 30 good sales in my SUPPLY records for October, so I won't put up charts for that data. However, median DOM for sales from these SUPPLY records is 95, average is 156, minimum is 33, and maximum is 525 days. Median seems quite consistent with what I've calculated for prior months (time on market = 3 months), but average has shot up, so we'll have to wait for more October data before we really know what's going on.
Remember my neighbors across the street? They have finally sold their townhouse for $890,000, which is down $9,000 paid for the place in late 2004, and down 25.8% from their original asking price of $1.2 million in August 2006. The place was tented for a day and somebody has moved in.
Now on to the outstanding inventory and sales for the year.
Before I give these figures, I should mention that over the past month I have made a concerted effort to resolve some of the outstanding inventory in my records, and I was able to. Thanks to the L.A. County tax assessor website, I resolved a lot of records, but the job is unfinished. In spite of that effort, I show the percentage of properties on the market for more than 240 days creeping up relative to percentages for shorter timeframes, so I still have some work to do. Also, remember that negative PCTRED means that occasionally houses are repriced higher than their original asking price, which still happens on occasion.
The following statistics are out of 810 unresolved inventory records (the August snapshot had 792 unresolved inventory records):
Orig Curr Sqft PCTRED DOM Ask $ Ask $ MEDIAN 859000 839000 1816 0.0 157 AVERAGE 1013708 981042 1935 2.9 190 MIN 373000 373000 410 -10.5 2 MAX 4990000 4990000 5100 28.8 679
For the 703 good sales from my SUPPLY records, through October so far (the August snapshot had 446 sale records):
Sqft Sale $ PCTRED DOM MEDIAN 1787 789000 3.4 100 AVERAGE 1837 846752 4.7 127 MIN 410 342500 -14.6 10 MAX 4700 2400000 33.1 573
Overall for 2007, median time on market is about 3.3 months, and average time on market is just over 4 months. Notice that for sales, which are successful transactions, there was a median percent reduction to asking price of 3.4% and an average reduction of 4.7%. For outstanding inventory, the median is NO reduction to asking price, with an average of 2.7%.
I was thinking of publishing charts of my August snapshot versus this November snapshot, but they can be misleading because I have taken steps to resolve some of the questionable inventory in my database since August, so the August data is biased that way. In the meantime, we'll just have to wait and see when more October sale data rolls in.
I will probably discontinue publishing data out of the L.A. Business Journal, for the reason that I now telecommute a lot, and the hard copy of the journal isn't as conveniently available from home.
New inventory is currently rolling in at the rate of about 2.4 properties a day.
4 Comments:
I should add, current asking price is changing faster than I can keep up with it. Even after this post, I just went through about half the Zip Realty data for Redondo Beach and downwardly revised many asking prices.
It looks to me like more seller agents are getting their clients to agree that if no sales offer comes after X number of days (and that usually falls within a few weeks), the price gets reduced. No argument. Although I still see a few piddly markdowns of $4K to $10K at a time, I think I see more substantive markdowns - like, 5% or more at a time.
Good work.
Average BELOW median. There's a 2x4 across the forehead.
And so far for November, average home sale price is WAAAY up in both 90277 and 90278. Something is very lopsided here.
Really nice analysis of the market. Good work!
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