Sunday, April 08, 2007

Real Estate $$$ Transacted through March 2007

Sorry for my long absence but I am preoccupied with other things right now. I am trying to help the L.A. County Carson animal shelter prepare for the Orange County Pet Expo, which we will attend on Saturday, April 14. Lots of dogs to pick out and try to get ready! I will be pretty busy for a while so my blogging activity will be somewhat sparse this month.

March looks like it was the best month that Redondo Beach, the beach cities, and Los Angeles county have had in at least a year. Sales volume was up sharply YOY in 90278 (north Redondo Beach), up moderately YOY in 90245 (El Segundo) and 90254 (Hermosa Beach), and down YOY in 90266 (Manhattan Beach) and 90277 (south Redondo Beach). On a raw basis, dollar volume is +27.4% YOY in 90245, +24.0% in 90254, down -18.8% in 90266, -19.0% in 90277, and up +68.3% in 90278. So the realtors that have been through a bit of famine are now feasting. 90278 has done so well that its YOY has pretty much closed the gap below 0% on a YOY basis on the moving average, and looks like it is about to poke back up through 0%. Whether it can sustain that increase remains to be seen, and for reasons I'll mention below I suspect it can't.

Other zip codes that did really well on a raw basis in March include 90275 (Rancho Palos Verdes), with sales volume just barely up YOY, but dollar volume up +23.3%;, 90717 (Lomita), with a situation similar to that of 90278 - sales volume up sharply and dollar volume up +34.0%; and San Pedro, with sales volume up and dollar volume up +34.4%. 90064 (Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills) pretty much matched last year in both sales and dollar volume.

Zip codes that obviously remain in a slump (or have recently entered a slump) are 90007, 90008, 90302, 90305, and 90094 (Playa Vista). The first four zip codes in particular could be especially affected by the subprime implosion.

Zip codes that are trying to rebound and whose %YOY on the moving average have just popped back above 0% include 90066 (Mar Vista), 90250 (Hawthorne), 90293 (Playa del Rey), and 90503 (Torrance). This is the second month back above 0% for Hawthorne, which contains the Centex Fusion project.

The remaining zip codes are in some sort of rebound with various degrees of success. 90249 (Gardena) has just dropped below 0%, as has 90303 (Inglewood).

Below are the relative rankings of most zip codes in southwest L.A. County. Remember that column 3 is an experimental "relative pain" ranking. This month the range is 0.1-4.4, with the low end meaning greater chronic pain and the high end meaning little chronic pain.

As an example of relative pain, take a look at the top of the list, where both Hawthorne (90250) and Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills (90064) both show +8.6% YOY. Hawthorne's relative pain is 1.1, but Rancho Park's is 0.3. If you look at the chart for Rancho Park, you can see this is the first time the YOY line has popped up above 0% in a year. But any weakness in Hawthorne is relatively recent.

90250          8.6%  1.1 Hawthorne
90064          8.6%  0.3 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills
90503          4.1%  0.6 Torrance
90066          3.0%  0.4 Mar Vista
90278         -1.0%  0.4 Redondo Beach (north)
90275         -1.5%  0.1 Palos Verdes Estates
90045         -2.6%  0.5 Westchester
90303         -3.1%  1.4 Inglewood
90249         -3.2%  1.0 Gardena
90293         -3.8%  0.6 Playa del Rey
90047         -5.7%  1.6 South Central
90277-90278  -11.4%  0.3 Redondo Beach combined
90746        -13.5%  2.1 Carson
90305        -15.8%  3.6 Inglewood
90501-90505  -16.2%  0.7 Torrance Combined
90291        -17.0%  0.6 Venice
beach cities -17.5%  0.3 4 Beach Cities combined
90035        -17.7%  0.6 West Fairfax
90230        -17.7%  0.8 Culver City
90732        -18.0%  0.8 San Pedro/Rancho PV
90266        -20.0%  0.3 Manhattan Beach
90301-90305  -20.5%  1.7 Inglewood/Lennox combined
90037        -20.6%  1.3 South Central
90501        -21.4%  0.9 Torrance
90044        -21.5%  2.3 Athens
90062        -21.7%  1.6 South Central
90301        -21.7%  1.4 Inglewood
90254        -21.7%  0.3 Hermosa Beach
90502        -22.2%  1.6 Torrance
90043        -22.6%  1.1 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills
90302        -22.7%  1.4 Inglewood
90277        -23.2%  0.1 Redondo Beach (south)
90504        -23.2%  0.5 Torrance
90717        -24.0%  0.5 Lomita
90401-90405  -24.1%  0.4 Santa Monica combined
90019        -25.7%  1.0 Country Club Park/Mid City
90505        -26.0%  0.3 Torrance
90036        -28.9%  0.5 Park La Brea
90245        -29.3%  0.6 El Segundo
90008        -32.4%  0.8 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park
90016        -33.0%  1.3 West Adams
90018        -33.4%  1.4 Jefferson Park
90232        -36.2%  0.7 Culver City
90292        -36.4%  1.8 Marina del Rey
90260        -37.5%  1.0 Lawndale
90034        -38.8%  1.9 Palms
90056        -41.4%  0.6 Ladera Heights
90304        -42.0%  1.4 Lennox
90745        -42.8%  1.4 Carson
90094        -46.3%  4.4 Playa Vista
90007        -56.5%  1.4 South Central
90744        -80.7%  0.8 Wilmington

I suspect that a portion of that spectacular performance in 90278 is due in part to financial crisis activity (property in preforclosure, a bank sale, or a tax default). I started noticing a few properties sold during March that has also had recorded sales in February, or at least since October. However, I need some hard numbers to back up my suspicions, so what I am currently doing is gathering data on the sales in March 2006, to see how many "suspicious" sales there were back then compared to those in March 2007. And by the way, I think it is very odd that when you go to Zillow and type in Redondo Beach, CA where it says City, State, OR ZIP, and then uncheck For Sale, Make Me Move, and All Other Homes so that only the Recently Sold are pulled up, then click the Sold On column to sort sales in descending order, there seems to be this big Redondo gap between 3/16/2007 and 3/31/2007. At least this is the state of Zillow right now while I am posting this. Where are all those spectacular sales???

Be sure to visit my Real Estate $$$ Tracker for details about a zip code you have curiousity in.


Blogger bearmaster said...

By the way, the local beach papers are advertising "no money down" loans again.

7:38 AM, April 09, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...


Got luck with the animal shelter! Alas, our new place doesn't allow pets... but one day. :)

I do appreciate the numbers. The strength is surprising. Foreclosures or the Bull trap?

It also surprises me to see zero down adds springing up again...

Eventually that fraud will dry up the available credit... but it will take a while.

Oh, if you haven't seen the real estate roller coaster, you should. I found it very enlightening. (Link on my blog, current post).

Got popcorn?

11:41 AM, April 09, 2007  

Post a Comment

<< Home