Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Redondo Beach Sales Stats through June 2007 (sneak preview)

The following numbers are taken from the SALE records in my database. If these records are of any value, they tell us that home prices have made little directional progress since I've started tracking them in this fashion. Any gain made in the median price this spring appears to be eroding. (Next month I'll start lopping off the oldest month here.)

STAT     DEC 2006   JAN 2007    FEB 2007    MAR 2007    APR 2007    MAY 2007   JUN 2007
records        50         48          64         105         114          91         62
MEDIAN   $737,000   $724,500    $745,358    $755,000    $799,000    $777,000   $764,500
AVERAGE  $769,170   $762,005    $787,799    $813,252    $884,271    $855,228   $830,711
MIN      $400,000   $389,000    $387,500    $370,000    $470,000    $453,000   $485,000   
MAX    $1,400,000 $2,100,000  $1,878,000  $2,027,000  $1,750,000  $1,640,000 $1,565,000

My SUPPLY records which have recorded sales for May 2007 number about 50. According to my SUPPLY records, original asking price, sale price, sqft, DOM, and PCTRED (percent reduction in price) are as follows:

          ORIGINAL     SALE     SQFT    DOM    PCTRED
           ASKING      PRICE
MEDIAN     794000     782500    1762     90      2.8
AVERAGE    864950     833090    1838    117      3.3
MIN        495000     485000     878     35     -6.4
MAX       1470000    1420000    3363    338     16.8

(Remember that if PCTRED is negative, that means that final sale price was increased over original asking price.)

The gap between original asking price and final sale price has narrowed considerably, which suggests to me that maybe sellers are smartening up about how to price their properties. Since median price progress is eroding, I'll venture an opinion that buyers are starting to prevail.

This chart is from my SUPPLY records. The reason I choose to publish SQFT charts from my SUPPLY, rather than SALE records, is because when sales are recorded the square footage can easily be wrong if the home was remodeled and the remodel was not recorded, or if the property is new construction. The same chart from SALE records show a few more sales recorded in the 1750 and 2000 columns, but it otherwise looks very much the same.

DOM has held quite steady. The median time on market is 3 months, and the average time on market is very nearly 4. The average figure is easily double what Shorewood reports, but as you well know, I count the number of days on market from when a property is first listed. Still, 3-4 months on market is not a bad thing at all, compared to other parts of the country. Unless you are a spoiled Southern Californian who has gotten used to 20% a year gains in the value of your house and you have gotten used to listings getting sold within a few days.


Blogger bearmaster said...

I will be leaving for vacation on Saturday, and am not sure I will have time to blog before then. So median price charts and other measures of beach cities sales activity will be late this month.

9:22 PM, July 11, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

A huge bunch of inventory came online today. The rate at which inventory is coming online for RB right now is 3 properties a day. In June it was over 4.5 a day.

9:54 PM, July 11, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

By the way, well over 10% of the SALES records I have for June show a property involved in some kind of suspicious financial distress situation. I did not exclude them in my calculations.

10:01 PM, July 11, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Sorry to keep posting stuff here but these little bits of info somehow don't seem to rate a posting, IMO.

I just got an email from Centex about Fusion. It features two "Residence G" apartments - one for about $559K and one for $545K. Yet according to the Centex website, Residence G "starts" from about $685K. So prices have come down from what's advertised on the Centex website.

5:04 AM, July 12, 2007  

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