Monday, July 02, 2007

Part 1: The Last Great Southern California Housing Slump

Hello blog readers. I wrote a multi-part article for another website. It lays out in a rough timeline the overall prevailing mood that I found in the Los Angeles Times between 1988 and 1996. The last part will compare the mood at the beginning of the debacle (1988) and at the end (circa 1996).

If you want to buy and sell real estate in the future and you want to sell somewhere near the tops and buy somewhere near the bottoms, you may appreciate what the newspapers were saying at the key turning points. I believe it is terribly important to pay close attention to the language. I was an eyewitness to that last debacle and I can tell you that I had forgotten much of what had happened. And if a bear like me can forget most of the painful past, then it's virtually certain that the bulls are clueless.

HERE IT IS: The Last Great Southern California Housing Slump - Part I

4 Comments:

Blogger Michael said...

Sounds interesting, why did you leave all the good stuff out of Part 1?

8:56 PM, July 02, 2007  
Blogger john67elco said...

THIS IS GREAT. Dont forget to read this article in full:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CEFD6133BF93AA1575BC0A966958260

Here is my post I did on my wesite last year:

Let's revisit the past from the present

I emailed a writer over at LA Times today. I am glad we can say the same things 16 years later and still be in the dark!


"Hello I liked the article written by you. There is just a funny note I thought I'd point out.

Your article stated:

"One hopeful factor is that the state's economy is much stronger and more diversified than it was 15 years ago, when the aerospace industry was downsizing with the end of the Cold War."

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rents19oct19,1,7405522.story?coll=la-



Now for an August 1990 NY Times article.

"In the view of many real estate agents here, the slump is nothing more than a temporary cooling. Californians continue to recite a litany of factors they think will keep the housing market from going into a steep dive, including the state's diversified economy, widespread restrictions on building that have limited the supply of housing and its strong population growth. Early census figures show that the state's population has topped 29 million, for an explosive 23.7 percent rise in a decade. "

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CEFD6133BF9

That article could be written today. I think the obvious is going to occur when this economy is much of housing.

John"

If he emails back I'll post his reply

Update 10-28-06: The LA Times writer hasn't replied. What would he say to that anyways?

12:04 PM, July 03, 2007  
Blogger Craig said...

Thank you for sharing this...I was just a little kid back then so it is great to hear how it all played out. I am eager to read the next part(s) of your experience.

11:59 AM, July 04, 2007  
Blogger Westside Bubble said...

I remember 1989-1994 quite well. Thanks for going to the work to document it! I'm looking forward to your next installments.

Great quotes, john67elco!

12:11 AM, July 07, 2007  

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