Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Part II: The Last Great Southern California Housing Slump

Hello blog readers. This is part II of my 3 part review of the Los Angeles Times archives during our last great downturn. If you missed Part I, find it here.

I love examining words. The reason I went through those archives was to look at the words used to describe the mindset of the market participants back then. Words are terribly important because they give you a context in which to interpret what you see and hear, including data and charts. You will find, to your amazement, that what we are experiencing right now is a somewhat slower remake of a movie that ran from the late 80's to about 1996 or 1997.

HERE IT IS: The Last Great Southern California Housing Slump - Part II

I noticed in the news today that Lawrence Yun, the talking head of NAR, is starting to sound a bit more sober about the national housing markets prospects overall. This is a milestone. The contrarian in me thus thinks that the national housing statistics overall could be due for a feeble rebound. This sounds very much like the multi-year timeline by Clif Droke that I've mentioned in this blog a few times. At this point in time I expect a rebound to be a false dawn. We are going to have to be extremely patient before the true opportunities present themselves.


Blogger bearmaster said...

The rate that new inventory is coming on the market has slowed substantially since late June, to just over 2 properties a day. We'll know better at the end of the week how sales are shaping up, in comparison.

4:42 PM, July 11, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...


Thank you. I enjoyed the read. One thing I've learned over the last year+ is the stately pace real estate downturns take. Every time I reset my expectations... its for a bottom further to the future. :(

Coworkers are giving up. Every day at work I find out about someone who has sent out a resume to Denver, Texas (and I mean everywhere in that state), Phoenix (yea... frying pan meet fire), or Tucson. Rarely somewhere else....

Comparing timelines:
Previous peak: 1989
New peak: 2005

Start of previous panic: 1992
New panic: 2008.

Previous bottom: 1994/1995
New bottom: ????

It seems we're on a very similar pace. I'm just not done pretending I'm wise enough to predict the bottom anymore. ;)

Got popcorn?

9:22 AM, July 14, 2007  

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