Part II: The Last Great Southern California Housing Slump
Hello blog readers. This is part II of my 3 part review of the Los Angeles Times archives during our last great downturn. If you missed Part I, find it here.
I love examining words. The reason I went through those archives was to look at the words used to describe the mindset of the market participants back then. Words are terribly important because they give you a context in which to interpret what you see and hear, including data and charts. You will find, to your amazement, that what we are experiencing right now is a somewhat slower remake of a movie that ran from the late 80's to about 1996 or 1997.
HERE IT IS: The Last Great Southern California Housing Slump - Part II
I noticed in the news today that Lawrence Yun, the talking head of NAR, is starting to sound a bit more sober about the national housing markets prospects overall. This is a milestone. The contrarian in me thus thinks that the national housing statistics overall could be due for a feeble rebound. This sounds very much like the multi-year timeline by Clif Droke that I've mentioned in this blog a few times. At this point in time I expect a rebound to be a false dawn. We are going to have to be extremely patient before the true opportunities present themselves.
posted by bearmaster at 1:03 PM
2 Comments:
The rate that new inventory is coming on the market has slowed substantially since late June, to just over 2 properties a day. We'll know better at the end of the week how sales are shaping up, in comparison.
Bearmaster,
Thank you. I enjoyed the read. One thing I've learned over the last year+ is the stately pace real estate downturns take. Every time I reset my expectations... its for a bottom further to the future. :(
Coworkers are giving up. Every day at work I find out about someone who has sent out a resume to Denver, Texas (and I mean everywhere in that state), Phoenix (yea... frying pan meet fire), or Tucson. Rarely somewhere else....
Comparing timelines:
Previous peak: 1989
New peak: 2005
Start of previous panic: 1992
New panic: 2008.
Previous bottom: 1994/1995
New bottom: ????
It seems we're on a very similar pace. I'm just not done pretending I'm wise enough to predict the bottom anymore. ;)
Got popcorn?
Neil
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