Los Angeles County South Bay Beach Cities Real Estate $$$ Transacted for June 2007
I am going ahead and publishing June data early. If I have to make corrections to it, I will do so when I publish July charts.
Over the past month we've been hearing a great deal about slowing sales. Some parts of the area I cover (south of the 10 freeway, west of the 110) are indeed getting hit, in terms of sales volume and real estate $$$ transacted. But some areas haven't been paying attention to the headlines and are struggling to continue along the path of the spring bounce.
I have to agree with observers who say this market is very lopsided. Most of the upper-end areas are hanging in there and their markets are doing relatively well compared to mid and lower tier market areas. That's not to say that they are blasting to new highs - nope, not at all. Only Playa Vista (90094) is one area I would say is showing renewed enthusiasm. There must be a new development on line and up for sale.
If the party is over in the beach cities, some guests are still lingering to sip the dregs of the punch bowl and turn off the lights. At least that's what it looks like on the surface. It's very difficult at this stage to determine what portion of the sales listed are due to some kind of financial distress. Right now I show two June Redondo Beach sales that were definitively some kind of distress sale, as they were due to be auctioned in July. I have six June sales (including the two mentioned) marked as "suspicious". Some are because of the proximity of recent transactions on that same property. Out of these six, one is marked a short sale. That's out of 46 actual sales that I've managed to record for June thus far, but Melissa Data says there are 88 sales for Redondo Beach for June, so there is much that remains unknown.
Another problem making it difficult to track what's going on is the way that Zillow shifts sales dates. When a sale is first recorded in Zillow, sometimes the date gets shifted later on. I've seen late May sales get shifted into June, for instance. Sometimes records just disappear altogether. And if you've looked at Zip Realty lately, it's a mess. I've lost count of the number of Redondo Beach properties for which it has double entries. I have no perspective from the inside, but as an observer, I'd say the bookkeeping aspects of this housing market are in chaos. Time will tell if that signifies that the underlying markets are also in a chaotic condition.
Anyway, back to the June sales. Of the four beach cities, only Hermosa Beach (90254) appears to have taken anything like a good leap upward in June. El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, and Redondo Beach have not turned downward, but don't appear to be energetically climbing upwards either. Palos Verdes Estates (90275) looks quite weak this month.
Perhaps the best area that reflects what's going on in the upper westside areas is Rancho Park (90064). Take a look at its graph. Notice how long the %YOY trendline remained below 0% and how deeply it cut below 0%, then notice the sharp quick recovery bounce, and how the YOY trendline is starting to turn down again.
Many of the areas you would expect to get hit are indeed getting hit. Inglewood has slumped bigtime. (The Wikipedia page for Inglewood Renaissance no longer exists.) Areas of south central are slumping.
Here are the charts for Redondo Beach, the beach cities, and the area of southwest Los Angeles County that I cover.
Here are the %YOY rankings. As a reminder, the numbers are on the 3 month doubly smooth moving average of the %YOY change in dollars transacted. This number is a more "immediate" measure of what is happening. If you look up the individual zip codes in our tracker, you'll see the trendline of this number.
MONTHLY PAIN Realtors currently fat and happy 90064 28.9% 0.3 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90277 23.4% 0.1 Redondo Beach (south) 90503 16.7% 0.6 Torrance 90094 15.8% 4.3 Playa Vista Doing well 90277-90278 12.0% 0.3 Redondo Beach combined 90293 9.4% 0.6 Playa del Rey 90066 6.1% 0.4 Mar Vista 90732 5.4% 0.8 San Pedro/Rancho PV beach cities 5.1% 0.3 4 Beach Cities combined Doing OK 90278 4.8% 0.5 Redondo Beach (north) 90266 2.2% 0.3 Manhattan Beach 90304 1.6% 1.3 Lennox 90254 1.4% 0.3 Hermosa Beach 90505 0.0% 0.3 Torrance Hanging in there 90034 -0.5% 1.9 Palms 90501 -1.4% 0.9 Torrance 90036 -3.0% 0.5 Park La Brea 90275 -3.4% 0.1 Palos Verdes Estates Slip sliding away 90250 -7.5% 1.1 Hawthorne 90230 -8.6% 0.8 Culver City 90245 -9.6% 0.6 El Segundo 90501-90505 -11.6% 0.6 Torrance Combined 90291 -15.5% 0.5 Venice 90045 -16.3% 0.5 Westchester SW county -16.8% 0.6 Southwest L.A. County 90717 -17.7% 0.5 Lomita 90249 -19.7% 0.9 Gardena 90401-90405 -23.2% 0.4 Santa Monica combined 90056 -23.6% 0.6 Ladera Heights 90043 -24.3% 1.1 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills About to head off a cliff 90018 -31.6% 1.4 Jefferson Park 90007 -31.9% 1.3 South Central 90504 -33.3% 0.4 Torrance 90044 -33.5% 2.2 Athens 90062 -36.1% 1.5 South Central 90035 -36.2% 0.5 West Fairfax 90047 -37.1% 1.5 South Central 90008 -38.0% 0.7 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park 90019 -38.3% 0.9 Country Club Park/Mid City 90260 -38.9% 0.9 Lawndale 90292 -39.3% 1.7 Marina del Rey 90016 -39.7% 1.2 West Adams 90232 -43.3% 0.6 Culver City 90746 -46.2% 2.0 Carson 90037 -46.3% 1.2 South Central 90745 -47.5% 1.3 Carson 90301 -49.8% 1.3 Inglewood Down the cliff, Thelma and Louise style? 90303 -53.0% 1.3 Inglewood 90744 -55.0% 0.6 Wilmington 90502 -55.6% 1.5 Torrance 90301-90305 -61.1% 1.6 Inglewood/Lennox combined 90302 -70.0% 1.3 Inglewood 90305 -77.5% 3.5 Inglewood
And here are the zip codes sorted according to the more chronic pain they feel. Remember that the higher this number, the less chronic pain the zip code feels. The closer to 0, the more chronic pain this zip code feels. At the top is Playa Vista, which hasn't felt much pain from any downturn. Inglewood is near the top. Despite its sharp slump, that slump is relatively recent. The beach cities are near the bottom, which, despite their relatively recent bounces, have felt some pain from the slump.
LONG TERM PAIN 90094 15.8% 4.3 Playa Vista 90305 -77.5% 3.5 Inglewood 90044 -33.5% 2.2 Athens 90746 -46.2% 2.0 Carson 90034 -0.5% 1.9 Palms 90292 -39.3% 1.7 Marina del Rey 90301-90305 -61.1% 1.6 Inglewood/Lennox combined 90047 -37.1% 1.5 South Central 90502 -55.6% 1.5 Torrance 90062 -36.1% 1.5 South Central 90018 -31.6% 1.4 Jefferson Park 90303 -53.0% 1.3 Inglewood 90302 -70.0% 1.3 Inglewood 90304 1.6% 1.3 Lennox 90301 -49.8% 1.3 Inglewood 90745 -47.5% 1.3 Carson 90007 -31.9% 1.3 South Central 90016 -39.7% 1.2 West Adams 90037 -46.3% 1.2 South Central 90250 -7.5% 1.1 Hawthorne 90043 -24.3% 1.1 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills 90249 -19.7% 0.9 Gardena 90019 -38.3% 0.9 Country Club Park/Mid City 90260 -38.9% 0.9 Lawndale 90501 -1.4% 0.9 Torrance 90732 5.4% 0.8 San Pedro/Rancho PV 90230 -8.6% 0.8 Culver City 90008 -38.0% 0.7 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park 90232 -43.3% 0.6 Culver City 90501-90505 -11.6% 0.6 Torrance Combined 90744 -55.0% 0.6 Wilmington 90503 16.7% 0.6 Torrance 90245 -9.6% 0.6 El Segundo SW county -16.8% 0.6 Southwest L.A. County 90293 9.4% 0.6 Playa del Rey 90056 -23.6% 0.6 Ladera Heights 90045 -16.3% 0.5 Westchester 90291 -15.5% 0.5 Venice 90036 -3.0% 0.5 Park La Brea 90035 -36.2% 0.5 West Fairfax 90278 4.8% 0.5 Redondo Beach (north) 90717 -17.7% 0.5 Lomita 90066 6.1% 0.4 Mar Vista 90504 -33.3% 0.4 Torrance 90401-90405 -23.2% 0.4 Santa Monica combined 90064 28.9% 0.3 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90505 0.0% 0.3 Torrance 90254 1.4% 0.3 Hermosa Beach 90266 2.2% 0.3 Manhattan Beach 90277-90278 12.0% 0.3 Redondo Beach combined beach cities 5.1% 0.3 4 Beach Cities combined 90277 23.4% 0.1 Redondo Beach (south) 90275 -3.4% 0.1 Palos Verdes Estates
Our regional real estate $$$ tracker is here.
The Google map interactive version of the regional real estate $$$ tracker is here.
posted by bearmaster at 11:12 AM
3 Comments:
Well all I can say is that watching a housing market correct is like watching paint dry. This is a slow go. The food chain is definitely being whacked but people here in the south bay and the nicer areas extending from San Diego to Ventura are just not feeling the impact........yet. We have not yet seen the shift in psychology. The stock market is way up through the first six months so that gives people comfort concerning large purchase decisions.
IMO we are just now starting to see the real consequences of this bubble. The credit markets are very jittery right now. The Bear Stearns hedge fund failures has to a degree let the jeanie out of the bottle. There are $500 billion of Arms to reset this year and over $700 billion next year. The defaults on these are going through the roof. The argument that these problems are contained are wishful thinking at best. I think we will see some degree of "systemic shock" that will rattle Wall Street once the reality of how bad these loans are performing truly sets in. When that credit event happens probably third or fourth qtr of this year, Joe sixpack will take notice. Thats when we will see the real correction.
I've started to see the market shifting from good to worse. Remember, these are colsed sales. The pendings are really lagging, so they will show up over the next few months (as closed sales).
What I find interesting is that usually people with money are smart, but not this time. There's just too much liquidity which causes foolish spending, in this case, local South Bay real estate. The writing is on the wall and on their foreheads, they just don't want to see it. As soon as more hedge funds take a dump, the rich will think twice about spending.
I love your website - found it a while ago through LALand blog, and I'm hooked. I am curious, though, why do you exclude 90274 and only cover 90275 minimally in your charts? Nobody seems to cover these zips... I've been looking and you're the closest thing. Do you know the reason for this? Thanks.
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