Sunday, June 24, 2007

Additional Charts for Beach Cities and Redondo Beach, May 2007

It is now June 24 but at this point in time Zillow has yet to post any Redondo Beach sales for June. Yet, Melissa Data shows 72 RB sales so far for the month of June. At that pace, sales volume for June will exceed what it was a year ago. I'd like to know why there is a reporting delay.

My figures differ very slightly for May, depending on whether I calculate them from the sales recorded on my SUPPLY records or from the original SALE records I've kept. But here are original asking prices, final sale prices, sqft, DOM, and PCTRED (percent reduction) out of (now) 70 SUPPLY records. Remember that if PCTRED is negative, that means that there were properties that sold above their original asking prices:

           ORIG      SALE       SQFT   DOM     PCTRED
          ASKPRICE  PRICE 
MEDIAN    823500    778500     1806     88     1.8
AVERAGE   881684    846226     1911    122     3.6
MIN       459000    453000      619     30    -2.8
MAX      1670000   1600000     4700    369    18.1

Out of my SALE records, SALEPRICE and SQFT are:

MEDIAN    777000    1787
AVERAGE   855228    1905

This chart is RB sales by square feet. We know median SQFT sold hovers somewhere in the 1787-1806 range (roughly).

Now here's one of those "food for thought" charts. Historically, sales volume in Redondo Beach has not been exactly bullish for several years! Look how high it was in April-May 2002, spiking past 180, and look where it is now,around 120. Higher and higher prices have been sustaining this market - the industry clearly does not "make it up on volume."

The moving average hit a peak around June 2002 (about 140), and the moving average around July 2005 tried, but didn't quite hit that previous peak. There was a slide downward, a bit of bounce, a retrace, and now the moving average bounce is about at where it sat July 2006.

At the moment both sales volume lines are pointed upwards - will the sales volume trend continue growing? At current sales rates, I guesstimate that RB will sell perhaps 102 units in June. We shall see.

The beach cities sales volume, too, closely resembles that of its component city Redondo Beach:


Blogger bearmaster said...

All volume data is from Melissa Data.

9:22 PM, June 24, 2007  
Blogger GoBig said...

Watch what happens from now on. Pendings are dropping like a rock! This thing is about to get very ugly in the South Bay...Sales are gring to a virtual halt.

9:37 AM, June 26, 2007  
Blogger GoBig said...

oops..I meant grinding.

9:37 AM, June 26, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

The first June updates were in Zillow as of this morning. It took 25 days for any June sales to show up - now it's practically the end of the month!

9:42 AM, June 26, 2007  

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