Redondo Beach Foreclosure Activity for late June
You can check out the sidebar link "Southland area foreclosures" for more details on these cases. I am mentioning them because there happen to be a lot of them this week.
Address Date of Auction The Village 105 2007-07-12 182nd Place 2007-07-11 Artesia Boulevard 2007-07-06 Grant Avenue 3 2007-07-05 Voorhees Avenue 2007-07-05 Kingsdale Avenue 2007-07-05 Camino de la Costa 3 2007-07-05 McBain Avenue 2007-06-28 The Village 103 2007-06-28
I do not have enough data from a year ago to compare with this year to be able to make any statements about increases in financial distress activity, but I believe there is in fact such an increase. With enough time I'll have more data to make a case.
posted by bearmaster at 9:21 PM
7 Comments:
I checked the report on your link. Are these for real? There's a lot of personal info on there, loan amount, etc.
Yes they are. Real estate related information, including foreclosures, are available through venues such as public deed records.
Bearmaster,
Great data! It will be very interesting to compare in a year.
I do not know about 2006, but in June 2005 any distressed homeowner could either sell or refinance... So I would be certain of the two year trend being way up. :)
But it is going to take the foreclosures that result from other foreclosures hitting the market to trigger enough of a price decline. Sigh...
Once upon a time I thought this was quick. I still think its going to happen faster than the 1990's downturn... but I admit that my entire time in the housing blog world has been spent with me extending my timeframe...
But the bond markets are screaming "sound the dive alarm." I'm still in shock that ML announced that they were only processing $3bil of suprime backed CMBS in June vs. $20bil/month that they normally do.
So from almost a quarter trillion a year to... less than $40 billion... 6X divider. This market is changing and fast!
Got popcorn?
Neil
Wannabuy,
When I post any sales information for a particular month I will try and report on short sales and other sales of financial distress. The big issue I have with it of course is time - it takes time to look up each property sold and get its sale history. But I continue to work on getting historical sales data.
I think you are right - once the stresses give way, it could be quick. If people are being denied more conservative loans because a property is $800,000, and they only make, say, $70,000 a year, then they'll be denied loans if the property is $700K or $600K and probably $500K and maybe even $400K. I see it as a big air layer (a credit bubble) in the price history.
I spent a few weekends reviewing newspaper archives of the 1990's downturn, and there was more going on to exacerbate it - aerospace downturn, national recession, etc, etc. (My God, I lived through it and witnessed it and even my memory was hazy!) Also, lenders were unwilling to let homeowners "short pay" their homes (sell on a short sale) - it was foreclosure or nothing. Some years later, with all the foreclosures piling up in their books, their attitudes changed. This time around lenders are jiggling lots of balls in the air to prevent the inevitable.
I have actually written a three part article about that last Great Slump, but I am waiting to see if another website wants to publish it first before I put it on here.
I've been reading up on foreclosures lately too (in general, not specifically what is happening now). When there are mortgage liens on a house they get recorded in security deeds. If the house gets foreclosed on it's pretty straightforward that the property goes back to the lender. But with people taking out first AND second mortgages at the same time to purchase a house, and assuming the lenders record their security deeds at the same time, then to which lender does the property fall back to? Does that get sorted out in court or is that all decided during the original escrow?
And suppose for simplicity's sake the second lender gets the defaulted property, but the first mortgage is still an encumbrance. So the second lender has to continue making payments to the first lender otherwise the second lender will get foreclosed on too.
Oh, this is going to be quite a circus when this all caves in and tanks the economy with it. The fools claiming this wouldn't be very bad because the "economy is strong" and "the damage is contained" - bah!
Bearmaster,
You may want to look at the turmoil of the San Fernando Valley. I just came across this. It's sales of San Fernando Valley homes dating back to 1984. Check out April and May of this year. They are the slowest April and May ever recorded dating back to 1984. Compare them to April May sales of 90 through 93, not even close. This thing has hit a brick wall.
http://www.srar.com/Revised_SFV_statistics_page/Single_Family_Sales_Annual_%20&_by_Month_1984_2002.pdf
This is Severe and it is getting awfully close to the premium areas of LA. Buyers are either on strike or they cant get the financing to lose the deal. This little scenario may be around for a while. FYI
LA_Renter, thanks for posting that link! If only we were so lucky that the realtor association down here published their numbers.
Oops, LA_renter's link got cut off, so I'll repost it here:
SFV Historical Stats
An interesting thing to point out, which resembles the south bay, is that on the surface, prices haven't corrected.
And in the south bay beach cities, sales volume has actually been in a downward trend for years. Check the SFV graph and you see evidence of the same - sales volume was very "toppy" in 2003.
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