Wednesday, June 13, 2007

L.A. Business Journal: Home prices set another record

According to this June 11 story by Daniel Miller (link may expire), the median home price in L.A. County is up again for May 2007. However, the story does state that the market is quite "lopsided", with the ultra high priced homes still doing relatively well while the lower priced homes lag. The median price for May, according to HomeData Corporation, was $585,000, which was 6.4% up YOY.

However, there were 5,666 sales in L.A. County for May, -37% from May 2006, which was -17% from May 2005.

Many local real estate professionals agree that the subprime implosion has made its impact. "Now you have to qualify at the full adjustable rate, and that is keeping out some of the buyers." Mortgage brokers are reporting that the tightened lending standards are "killing some deals that would have been made months ago", and that the lower end of the market is "falling out with a steeper drop in sales."

The California Association of Realtors (CAR) says that there has been slowing in every segment of the market, but the inventory buildup has been greatest in the below-$500,000 range. (Of course here in the four major beach cities, properties priced in that range are about non-existent!) For April 2007, there was 14.6 months of unsold inventory in Los Angeles County in the below-$500,000 range. For all price ranges in Los Angeles County, April saw 12.1 months of unsold inventory, over double from 5.6 months YOY.

According to the article, the experts are saying a "healthy" market has about a 7 month supply. For April 2007, days on market (DOM) has been averaging 55.5 days, compared with 34.5 days YOY. From the calculations I've run on inventory for my Redondo Beach records, I estimate real average DOM for RB to be double that.


As long-time readers of this blog know, I don't care for the way HomeData or DataQuick report median home sale figures because of the potential statistical problems of small numbers. Nevertheless, this is all we've got to go on, so for you curiosity-seekers I'll list the May 2007 numbers for the beach cities and some of the surrounding areas. These numbers are not shown in the online version of the article, only the print edition:


SFR SALES

       May Home Sales                   May Median Price
Zip    2007    2006    % Change        2007         2006      % Change
90045    33      41      -19.5%    $800,000     $845,000        -5.3%
90245    10      18      -44.4%    $837,000     $887,000        -5.6%
90250    42      64      -34.4%    $552,000     $528,000         4.5% 
90254    29      23       26.1%  $1,255,000   $1,260,000        -0.4%
90260    11      27      -59.3%    $675,000     $600,000        12.5%
90266    48      52       -7.7%  $1,704,000   $1,766,000        -3.5%
90274    26      19       36.8%  $1,365,000   $1,350,000         1.1%
90275    31      43      -27.9%  $1,175,000   $1,145,000         2.6%
90277    27      14       92.9%  $1,069,000   $1,112,000        -3.9%
90278    31      36      -13.9%    $775,000     $855,000        -9.4%
90501    27      30      -10.0%    $594,000     $594,000         0.0%
90502    11      15      -26.7%    $539,000     $531,000         1.5%
90503    30      23       30.4%    $765,000     $750,000         2.0%
90504    25      40      -37.5%    $590,000     $622,000        -5.1%
90505    24      37      -35.1%    $800,000     $810,000        -1.2%

CONDO SALES

       May Condo Sales                   May Median Price
Zip    2007    2006    % Change        2007         2006      % Change
90045     4       6      -33.3%    $406,000     $432,000        -6.0%
90245     4       8      -50.0%    $548,000     $696,000       -21.3%
90250     7       7        0.0%    $593,000     $435,000        36.3% 
90254     3       6      -50.0%    $444,000     $789,000       -43.7%
90260     5       3       66.7%    $430,000     $307,000        40.1%
90266     5       3       66.7%    $900,000     $900,000         0.0%
90274     3       1      200.0%    $460,000     $743,000       -38.1%
90275     5       6      -16.7%    $695,000     $550,000        26.4%
90277    20      19        5.3%    $769,000     $721,000         6.7%
90278    40      41       -2.4%    $686,000     $740,000        -7.3%
90501    18      11       63.6%    $525,000     $492,000         6.7%
90502    10      32      -68.8%    $347,000     $369,000        -6.0%
90503    20      17       17.6%    $541,000     $535,000         1.1%
90504     1       3      -66.7%    $434,000     $440,000        -1.4%
90505     3       3        0.0%    $462,000     $450,000         2.7%

5 Comments:

Blogger bearmaster said...

By the way, I just want to say that if anybody reading this has submitted a bubble blog link request, I haven't ignored you. I'm redoing my housing bubble blog map and I plan to include your blogs in it - just be patient with me.

10:49 PM, June 13, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Sales have picked up a bit after the end of May slump. If this sale rate continues, I'd guestimate the following sale volumes by the end of June:

90245 2007 est=10, 2006=25
90254 2007 est=34, 2006=13
90266 2007 est=51, 2006=45
90277 2007 est=34, 2006-26
90278 2007 est=64, 2006-50

For Redondo, a ballpark June estimate would be 98 sales. I have about 65 properties in my inventory records so far, and if that rate continues I'll end up with 139 inventory records for all of June. This is just a snapshot of the moment, which can change next week - inventory to sales running at 1.4 to 1. Retail sales have recently been unexpectedly high and I don't know if that has implications for the housing market for June or not.

1:23 PM, June 14, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

I should clarify, that is just new inventory coming on in June, there is still lots of old inventory.

1:24 PM, June 14, 2007  
Blogger latesummer2008 said...

Is there some way to get $/sqft numbers, YOY, for Condos and Houses, seperately? I think this would give a clearer picture, of what is really going on.

6:19 PM, June 15, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

The L.A. Business Journal does not publish that statistic.

9:50 PM, June 15, 2007  

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