Monday, November 06, 2006

Revised numbers for October $$$ transaction volume

When I posted the October $$$ volume for selected zip codes, I did mention that I was publishing early and there was a chance that I would miss some October data. Tonight I updated my spreadsheets with the final October numbers.

I will not republish all the October charts as that will take too long, but the YOY chart for the beach cities combined is shown below. As you can see there was an extremely modest rebound as the pink line has started to crook up a bit.

Yet the headlines and ads have been trumpeting that the worst is behind us and the real estate slump is largely over. As I updated the spreadsheets I noticed that for many zip codes the number of sales for October increased but the average sale price actually fell, meaning that the total $$$ volume barely changed at all! Other areas, including both north and south Redondo, showed a little bit of a bounce. A few dip buyers have probably gotten lured in.

I am also republishing the rankings. You can compare them to the preliminary October figures and slso to the September figures to see if anything has changed significantly. I highly doubt it.

Real estate on steroids, realtors fat and happy:

90305 277.4% Inglewood
90301-90305 41.4% Inglewood/Lennox combined
90746 33.1% Carson
90304 25.6% Lennox
90245 24.3% El Segundo

Doing very well:

90043 19.8% Hyde Park, Windsor Hills
90037 15.6% South Central
90744 11.1% Wilmington
90062 10.7% South Central
90301 6.2% Inglewood
90303 6.1% Inglewood

Hanging in there:

90260 5.1% Lawndale
90047 5.0% South Central

Slip sliding away:

90302 -2.5% Inglewood
90044 -2.7% Athens
90745 -3.3% Carson
90250 -6.9% Hawthorne
90502 -7.1% Torrance
90018 -8.6% Jefferson Park

Losing a grip:

90501 -12.8% Torrance
90266 -14.2% Manhattan Beach
90504 -14.6% Torrance
90045 -16.7% Westchester
90016 -17.3% West Adams
90230 -18.1% Culver City
90094 -21.3% Playa Vista
90249 -21.5% Gardena
90501-90505 -21.9% Torrance Combined
90277 -24.6% Redondo Beach (south)

About to go over a cliff (realtors getting hungry):

beach cities -25.6% 4 Beach Cities combined
90066 -26.0% Mar Vista
90019 -28.8% Country Club Park/Mid City
90007 -29.0% South Central
90035 -29.2% West Fairfax
90036 -30.5% Park La Brea
90008 -30.6% Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park
90277-90278 -31.1% Redondo Beach combined
90503 -32.1% Torrance
90505 -32.8% Torrance
90232 -33.7% Culver City
90056 -33.8% Ladera Heights
90278 -35.4% Redondo Beach (north)
90717 -35.8% Lomita
90034 -36.9% Palms
90292 -39.4% Marina del Rey
90293 -40.8% Playa del Rey
90291 -40.8% Venice
90732 -41.4% San Pedro/Rancho PV
90254 -48.2% Hermosa Beach
90064 -48.4% Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills

Sliding down a cliff (realtors really hungry!)

90401-90405 -54.2% Santa Monica combined
90275 -63.5% Palos Verdes Estates

2 Comments:

Blogger bearmaster said...

And I will say again for the uninformed - these are not price figures!

9:09 PM, November 06, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

My preliminary estimate for raw (I-S)/S for October is 4.25 = (809-154)/154. S = the sum of the Melissa sales numbers for the five sip codes of the beach cities, I = current inventory for the beach cities according to Zip Realty, less 4% (my guesstimate of how much inventory has grown in the same zip codes since the start of November). 4.25 puts I-S/S almost exactly where it was in September.

7:30 AM, November 07, 2006  

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