Monday, October 30, 2006

Third time's a charm? Look what's back on the market

I have blogged about this property numerous times, but I noticed it came up in the listings today. I first became aware of this property last Christmas vacation, when its asking price was $995,000. Since then, it has been re-re-re-re-listed and marked down to $889K, $869K, $849K, and $829K before that last listing expired. It is now back on the market with an asking price of $789,000, which is 20.7% below the original asking price. Although I think this still is a phantasmagorically astronomical asking price, it's not as far out of the galaxy as it was last December, so it's probably got a better chance of selling this time. It even falls out of the Zillow estimate range on the low end.

I think the problem with this property, other than that its original asking price was out in the Milky Way, is that the property is almost too nice for this part of the neighborhood. If people are going to continue buying real estate, I think they will be concerned about value and they will start remembering the old adages about buying real estate, like "Buy the cheapest property in the best neighborhood you can afford." Relative to the properties around it, this property is not cheap.


Blogger bearmaster said...

This property was last bought November 8, 2004 for $710,000.

2:20 PM, October 30, 2006  
Blogger Rob Dawg said...

I beg to differ. This property Nov 2006 at $789k is MORE unrealistic than $889k was last spring. I don't need to tell you this is called chasing the market down.

5:55 PM, October 30, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Robert, I stated what I did for the following reasons, provided conditions don't collapse over the next few months.

The median condo price for 90278 for September is $710K, in September 2005 it was $720K. The raw difference is -1.4%, or -0.1% on a doubly smooth moving average of price change. I know in Temecula sellers can't get 2004 prices, but we don't have those market conditions here. Not yet.

The asking price of this particular condo now is about 11% over its sale price in late 2004.

The asking prices of other condos in the area that coincidentally also sold in late 2004 and are also again for sale are currently asking closer to 17% above the late 2004 sale price. Between those properties and this particular relisted property, this one is priced slightly closer to earth, although they all are still way overpriced. But if a determined buyer were looking at relative values here...

The "other" properties are asking for $377 per sq ft and $459 per sq ft. This particular property is currently asking $386 per sq ft, and has landscaping the other two properties don't have, on an attractively tree-lined street that isn't true of the "other" properties.

They still have a window of opportunity to dump this thing as long as it remains priced competitively compared to these other properties. If they don't get rid of this property by the end of this year, then I agree they will end up chasing the market down.

8:32 PM, October 30, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

I should clarify too that this particular property went through more markdowns than those I listed (I missed quite a few).

The property is almost "too nice" when compared to the properties immediately surrounding it, but the property comparisons I made were to other properties a few streets away.

Finally, a high end home located in a really undesirable area (right next to power line towers) recently sold at about 21% below its original asking price, after being on the market just a little longer.

7:50 AM, October 31, 2006  

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