Tuesday, October 03, 2006

From the south bay bubble scrapbook

I drive by this 100-unit condo complex almost daily, now that Aviation Blvd is ripped up and unnavigable. Unfortunately this is not one area of Lawndale that has been dolled up in recent years. The picture shows seven For Sale signs but there are actually eight - I've counted them several times. I did not want to photograph this until a new record was reached because I have actually seen clumps of For Sale signs at this complex before in years past - just not this many. If you look hard, you'll see yet another place for sale across the street.

There were flyers available for two of the properties for sale, so I grabbed them. Zillow has gotten way behind guesstimating the value of these units. This is apparently an old building that was converted into condos from apartments, probably the 70's or early 80's. The most recent sale was an 867 square foot 2 bed/2 bath place (about the size of my apartment) in July for $310,000. Zillow guesstimate for that is now $349,135, but we know that's an obsolete valuation. And yes, you read that right, and I did not type the square footage wrong, it is not missing an initial digit 1.

Unit #237, 2 bed/2bath, 939 square feet, is now for sale for $295,000. Unit #135, 0 bed/1 bath (studio), with 371 square feet, is now for sale for $199,000.

Peeking at 90278 listings, I see that inventory is creeping back up. I'm also starting to see markdowns of close to 10%, which used to take 6 months to accomplish, happen in a matter of 2 weeks.


Anonymous Anonymous said...


Keep up the good work. Thank you for this information. That street of signs is scary and reminds me of ~1993. The inventory uptick is interesting as is the price corrections.

If you look at my blog, I have officially given up my stance that this will be a one year correction. However, I do think many areas will hit bottom by fall 2008. 2007 is going to be one heck of a falling knife...


5:04 PM, October 03, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Even Elliott Wave, among the most bearish of bears, is starting to wonder if we are facing a Millennium degree correction, rather than a Grand Supercycle one, given the extent and duration of this very diffuse topping process in all asset classes.

Since even the seasoned bears are finding this whole thing is taking a lot longer to unwind than anybody expected, at least we know we have plenty of company with our frustration.

It is astonishing how our Treasury and Federal Reserve keep managing to kick the can down the road and delay the inevitable pain. And how optimism as measured by sentiment indexes reaches highs and just stays there. In all cases in recorded history, bubbles unwind swiftly and violently.

5:15 PM, October 03, 2006  

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