DQNews South Bay Resale Activity for August 2006

According to DQ News, the August Monthly resale activity for the south bay area showed the following:

Zip     # SFR   Median   %Chg   # Condo  Median    %Chg 
        Sales   $SFR      YOY    Sales   $Condo     YOY
90045    31     799,000   5.1      3     385,000    6.9
90245    11     908,000  17.9      8     610,000   14.0      
90254    12   1,218,000 -16.0      8     915,000   15.1   
90260    15     525,000   6.9      7     346,000    9.0
90266    47   1,850,000  25.9      4   1,543,000   41.5
90277    17   1,123,000  12.3     22     606,000  -10.6 
90278    25     765,000  -0.5     23     650,000   -6.3

The beach cities charts below look strictly at resale activity for existing SFRs. The pink line is the raw %YOY change in the median price. The dark blue line is the %YOY on a doubly smooth 3 month moving average of the median price. I like to take moving averages because seasonal activity does not always "match up" (e.g., sometimes Easter sales fall more in March, sometimes more in April.) Beach cities zip codes are 90245 (El Segundo), 90254 (Hermosa Beach), 90266 (Manhattan Beach), 90277 (south Redondo Beach), and 90278 (north Redondo Beach).

The bubble is not going quietly. There was a slight rebound this month in median price activity. Considering that in past years we've had summer sale surges that have leveled off toward fall, the rebound is not particularly impressive, but we'll keep an eye on it. I'm still looking at the doubly smooth 3 month moving average (blue line), not the pink jerky month by month change (pink line). Those blue lines are still trending down. 90245 (El Segundo) and 90254 (Hermosa Beach) fall below 0%; 90266 (Manhattan Beach) has lightly bounced off the 0% line; 90277 and 90278 (Redondo Beach) still seem to be working their way down to 0%.

I will be doing the September $$$ volume charts next weekend. Only 90245 at this point exceeds sales volume YOY from September 2005. If current sales rates continue, sales volume for the other beach city zip codes will be way down YOY. And $$$ volume remains weak.