Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Other measures of Beach Cities market activity, June 2006

Days on market (DOM) is understood to be a deceptive measure. Properties that don't get sold drop out of MLS listings and then get relisted. Nevertheless, most property listings do not get relisted again and again, at least in the market as it currently stands, so we can look at the trend. I've scraped the data out of Shorewood Realty reports. There was a data hole around January 2005 that I had to guesstimate over. The current average DOM for the beach cities for June is 37 days. However, I know of properties in my neighborhood that have been listed as long nine months ago.

My supply strength measure is a nice way of saying demand weakness. It shows an inventory to actual sales relationship. In a perfectly balanced market, I = S, with neither = 0, so (I-S)/S = 0. In June 2005, beach cities supply strength measured 0.08, by its 3 month moving average. That's close to 0. For June 2006 it is 2.63. How high will this go?


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