Monday, May 28, 2007

South Bay Resale Activity for April 2007

If you've read my previous posts on the DataQuick numbers at all, you'll know that except for the countywide SFR and condo numbers, which contain sample sizes of several thousand, I don't take these numbers by zip code and by dwelling type too seriously, because the sample sizes are too small to know anything statistically significant about trends.

And in a way the countywide numbers are meaningless for the average homeowner or prospective homebuyer - who cares that the county looks good if I only just want to transact one house in one particular neighborhood?

Nevertheless, Los Angeles County trendlines are still managing to snake up, though not nearly at the frantic pace of a few years back. Not even recent fallout by the subprime lenders have appeared to unhinge the market - not yet, anyway.

The talking heads on Bloomberg keep marveling at current conditions, noting that the housing market (overall, nationally) appears to be weak, but the economy is "good" (whatever that means), so the situation we are in is unprecedented. Is this the talk of somebody who has entered a tunnel and does not recognize the sight of an oncoming train?


Blogger bearmaster said...

The Case-Shiller Index shows a somewhat different picture for the Los Angeles area.

According to Marketwatch, the Case-Shiller Index reports a 1.4% price decline in Los Angeles in Q1.

According to Marketwatch, "the Case-Shiller index is considered to be a superior gauge of home prices compared with the median sales-price data released by the Commerce Department or National Association of Realtors, because it tracks multiple sales on the same property and is therefore not influenced by a different mix of homes in a period. Unlike the price index produced by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the Case-Shiller index does not include refinancings. And, also unlike the OFHEO index, it does include homes with mortgages larger than the the conforming limit of $417,000."

Marketwatch story

6:53 AM, May 29, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

If you are familiar with the Case-Shiller index, you may understand yet another reason why I don't like the way DataQuick reports. We really don't have a way of tracking what the exact same house has been selling for through the years.

There has been so much bubblefication, mcmansionization, supersizing and remodeling, it's just about impossible what that cute old red house on the corner would sell for if there weren't builders hovering nearby with dollar signs in their eyes, seeing yet another potential teardown.

But unfortunately this is the only data I've got.

12:10 PM, May 29, 2007  

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