Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Quick look at Redondo Beach Sales stats through April 2007

For those of you who might be curious about such things, this is what my database and spreadsheets currently spit out in sales statistics for recent months:

STAT     DEC 2006   JAN 2007    FEB 2007    MAR 2007    APR 2007
records        50         48          64         105         114
MEDIAN   $737,000   $724,500    $745,358    $755,000    $799,000   
AVERAGE  $769,170   $762,005    $787,799    $813,252    $884,271
MIN      $400,000   $389,000    $387,500    $370,000    $470,000
MAX    $1,400,000 $2,100,000  $1,878,000  $2,027,000  $1,750,000

These are from pure sale records scraped out of Zillow. If the calculated median is of any use, it shows an increase of 8.4% since December.

So far this month, Redondo has been booming, especially South Redondo. South Redondo did very well last month, which I'm sure accounts for much of that jump in median price. I don't get the sense that people are panic-buying before any easy credit foreclosure windows close. I think they are buying because they are impatient and tired of waiting.

When I say "booming", that means "better than 2006 sales." In April, South Redondo sales volume exceeded April 2006 sales volume substantially, and barely exceeded April 2005 sales volume. The way things stand now, I think South Redondo May 2007 sales volume is almost certain to exceed May 2006 sales volume but I don't think it will come near to matching May 2005 sales volume.

And how about North Redondo? North Redondo April 2007 sales volume did not hit that of April 2006 but managed to squeak over April 2005 sales volume. As things stand now, I don't think May 2007 sales volume will exceed that of May 2006, but I might be surprised.

As I am posting this, inventory is accumulating at a rate of about 4 new listings a day (and by "new", I mean a property that is not just a relisting since last September). This is the heaviest I've seen it accumulate since I've started record keeping last September. If this continues, I imagine it will start to weigh on sales soon.


Blogger Adi said...

So. Redondo may be 'booming', but why? I have one very sad story. A couple of friends found an (overpriced!) SR condo and just fell in love with it, and offered the asking price. Big mistake! The agent (obviously sensing their enthusiasm) said there were multiple offers and theirs was the lowest, and they better hurry and raise it. I'm about 99% sure that was a bald faced lie. There were probably NO OTHER OFFERS, and certainly not above the asking price. The agent totally took advantage of my friends. I have lost ALL respect for RE Agents! They are worse than used car salesmen. I bet if they were held leagally and criminally accountable for intentional misstatments, what comes out of their mouths would be very different! Anyway, my friends upped their offer by as much as they could (several thousand), and surprise was accepted the very next day. I guess none of those other buyers who were willing to offer more than the asking price in the first place, were all that serious. Extremely suspicious. Like I said, if that Agent lied to get a higher selling price, they should have to pay a civil and/or criminal penalty. At any rate, until people become more suspicious and realize that prices are going down and not up, and that this is a buyers market, this type of story will continue. And worse, it raises the comps in the area so other sellers will be less likely to offer fair values. And you can bet the first thing out of that agent's mouth to the next buyer that makes an offer is: "Oh, there's already multiple offers on that house. And yours is the lowest. You'd better raise it fast or you will lose the house!" SICK...

2:45 PM, May 18, 2007  
Blogger redondo_beach_dude said...

I think they are buying because they are impatient and tired of waiting.

This is exactly where I am. When do we see the 30-40% trim, how long do we wait, will the beach cities ever come down?

Can buy at anytime, but don't want to give up renting for a depreciating asset, an anchor. Buying in south Redondo would be a monthly nut roughly 2.5 to 3 times larger than renting... when will we see the rush for the exits?

3:37 PM, May 18, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

I know this sounds old, but when this this resolves (and it's going to be ugly), we are going to hear all kinds of ways that fraud has been perpetrated. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if sellers agents are trying to convey the impression that certain properties are "hot" and have multiple offers. I can't help but wonder if it must be illegal to do so, but who is responsible for checking up on these things?

I've posted before that on occasion I've seen ads in the local beach papers from realtors showing a picture of a property stamped SOLD, only the price in the ad was the asking price, not the sale price. And there have been media articles lately about how people with poor credit records can purchase an excellent credit record (without access to the credit cards of the good borrower), and get the "genes" of the good borrower spliced into his own history, so to speak. That way he looks presentable for a mortgage loan.

I think we will all be stunned at the many ways fraud has played out as this thing unwinds.

8:48 PM, May 18, 2007  
Blogger LA__Renter said...

I think what you are seeing in So Redondo is some pent up demand that decided to pull the trigger. I anticipate this to occur throughout the downturn. This is a very frustrating situation for all concerned. People don't want to wait in a rental forever and they know where they want to live, property markets don't correct over night especially in the nicer more desirable areas. I guess if you have a super long term outlook and can afford the property you want, who cares. Yes it is a depreciating asset but it's home.

What will eventually impact the desirable areas of LA and all of So Cal is the drying up of the entry level and move up buyer. The bottom rung of the housing market in California is basically in collapse;

California Total # of Sales (-28.5%) Y.O.Y
California Total # of Sales (-12.2%) MONTHLY
(12 year LOW)

So. Cal Total # of Sales (-28.9%) Y.O.Y
So. Cal Total # of Sales (-11.8%) MONTHLY

courtesy latesummer2008 Piggington post

In other words the plankton of California housing is disappearing. We are just now entering the brunt of the ARM resets so these numbers will get much worse before they get better. This will work its way through the food chain, thats common sense. The demand that you have on the sidelines will diminish, so as people get tired of renting the actual pool of buyers that will pull the trigger in markets like the South Bay will get smaller and smaller. The current pipeline still has some punch its just that there is nothing coming in behind it.

11:20 AM, May 19, 2007  
Blogger Lionel said...

bearmaster, I think you might be right about seller's agents. I was poking around Seattle about a property last fall, just checking it out when the buyer's agent informed me that the seller's agent said there were multiple offers coming in, so if I was interested I should make an "appropriate" bid. As soon as I hear about muliple bidders, I'm out. It's too similar to the feeling I get when stuck in a car dealership for too long. Anyhoo, months later I'm scanning sold property in the area I was searching and, lo an behold, the property sold for 20K under asking. What tool that seller's agent must be.

9:14 PM, May 24, 2007  

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