Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Real Estate $$$ Transacted through April 2007

Realtors are getting fat and happy again. Sales volume and dollar volume have continued strong through April particularly in the westside, including beach cities, though not as strong as in March. By outward appearances it looks as if the beach cities have shaken off their slump and are poised to resume their manic property appreciation, but I don't think so.

It looks as if some areas that may have particularly benefited from sub-prime lending, such as Inglewood, are now taking big hits. Look at the charts for Inglewood (90301 through 90305), Baldwin Hills (90008), South Central L.A. (90037, 90047), and Ladera Heights (90057) for examples of this. On the westside, Rancho Park (90064) is the biggest comeback story, followed by the beach cities. Yep, it feels like 2005 all over again. Prices have even leveled off somewhat - well the townhouse across the street just had its price slashed again, but that's a long story for another post.

Remember that the first figure (the percentage) is the % YOY change on the doubly smooth 3 month moving average of real estate transaction dollar volume in that particular zip code. The second figure is my "relative pain" measure. From a range of 0.1 - 4.4, the higher the number, the less chronic pain that zip code has felt. Roughly, anything below 1.0 has felt some pain, and anything above 1.0 has not felt very much pain.

Realtors fat and happy
90064        35.8%   0.3    Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills
90250        17.8%   1.1    Hawthorne
90503        16.9%   0.6    Torrance
90066        16.0%   0.4    Mar Vista

Doing very well
90278        12.8%   0.4    Redondo Beach (north)
90293        11.0%   0.6    Playa del Rey
90275        10.1%   0.1    Palos Verdes Estates
90045         5.4%   0.6    Westchester

Hanging in there
90277-90278   1.5%   0.3    Redondo Beach combined
beach cities -6.3%   0.3    4 Beach Cities combined
90254        -7.2%   0.3    Hermosa Beach
90732        -7.8%   0.8    San Pedro/Rancho PV
90249        -8.2%   1.0    Gardena
90505        -8.9%   0.3    Torrance
90230       -10.2%   0.8    Culver City
90266       -12.1%   0.3    Manhattan Beach
90277       -12.2%   0.1    Redondo Beach (south)
90501-90505 -12.7%   0.6    Torrance Combined
90047       -13.6%   1.6    South Central
90291       -14.3%   0.5    Venice
90717       -14.9%   0.5    Lomita

Slip sliding away

90303       -15.4%   1.4    Inglewood
90501       -15.7%   0.9    Torrance
90245       -15.9%   0.6    El Segundo
90034       -19.4%   1.9    Palms
90035       -19.8%   0.5    West Fairfax
90036       -20.9%   0.5    Park La Brea
90746       -21.5%   2.1    Carson
90301       -21.7%   1.3    Inglewood
90401-90405 -22.2%   0.4    Santa Monica combined
90043       -24.0%   1.1    Hyde Park, Windsor Hills
90504       -24.5%   0.5    Torrance
90232       -24.8%   0.7    Culver City

About to head over a cliff?

90304       -28.5%   1.3    Lennox
90044       -28.7%   2.3    Athens
90019       -30.5%   0.9    Country Club Park/Mid City
90062       -30.6%   1.5    South Central
90037       -31.5%   1.3    South Central
90008       -35.4%   0.8    Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park
90745       -35.6%   1.3    Carson
90301-90305 -35.8%   1.6    Inglewood/Lennox combined
90016       -37.2%   1.3    West Adams
90018       -38.1%   1.4    Jefferson Park
90302       -38.7%   1.4    Inglewood
90260       -39.7%   1.0    Lawndale
90292       -39.9%   1.7    Marina del Rey
90056       -40.8%   0.6    Ladera Heights
90502       -44.1%   1.6    Torrance
90094       -47.3%   4.4    Playa Vista

Over the cliff

90007       -50.2%   1.3    South Central
90305       -52.1%   3.5    Inglewood
90744       -84.3%   0.7    Wilmington

You can check the real estate $$$ tracker (link in sidebar) for detail about a particular zip code, though I only show charts for the area south of the 10 and west of the 110.

I notice that Redondo Beach inventory started picking up again right after Easter. Currently it is running at about 4 new properties a day. This is the highest rate I've seen new inventory hit Redondo Beach since New Year's.

I have been keeping track of whatever preforeclosure and foreclosure activity I find out about, but it has not been easy doing so. In addition, maintaining good sales data has been sucking up tons of my time. I have found the Easy Reader to be a good source of data so that my sale records are now more complete.

Right now I have over 1000 "supply" records of properties, most having been listed since the end of last September. Of these records, about 62% have no record of having been sold, and 38% have a record of being sold. The ratio of sold inventory to overall inventory has been rising, but that could be in part due to improved source data and my improved record keeping as a result.

I'm hoping this weekend to be able to resume my more usual blogging pace. Hang in there, I'll be back!

6 Comments:

Blogger MBWatcher said...

Right now I have over 1000 "supply" records of properties, most having been listed since the end of last September. Of these records, about 62% have no record of having been sold, and 38% have a record of being sold.

I have a far smaller sample, about 5 weeks' worth of clear, crisp, 100% data on Manhattan Beach, west of Sepulveda, and 38% is close to the pending/sold ratio here too.

http://mbconmu.blogspot.com/

This suggests that existing inventory is due to be cleared w/in 2 months, but the fact is many sales occur within days of the initial listing -- 3-10 days is common for good props at decent prices. Meanwhile the 60%+ overhang consists of lots of longtime lingerers -- sellers who won't move or can't move on price.

9:55 AM, May 13, 2007  
Blogger Mike said...

do you think that part of the strong sales are attributable to people trying to close before lending standards tighten up?

11:51 AM, May 13, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

I don't think the sales have much to do with anxiety about getting credit before lending standards tighten.

I think a fraction of the sales could be hot-potato type sales, where properties are or have been in trouble, and a transaction is either part of the foreclosure process or a bank selling to a realtor or flipper. But these would not account for all the big surge in sales.

I think people simply think it is safe to back in the water again, even though it is not.

4:35 PM, May 13, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

It also looks to me like many properties that have been listed within the past few months have sold for their exact asking prices. I have to run some statistics to really track this, but it strikes me as a little odd.

There is always the possibility that a large number of sellers have exactly priced their properties to match buyer expectations. But I wonder how likely is that. You'd think that even in a normal market, there'd be just a little haggling and the sale price might be within a few thousand of the asking price and not spot on target.

May is looking strong, especially in south Redondo. Inventory appears to be picking up.

5:00 PM, May 13, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...

Bearmaster,

Thank you again for great data.

Now... don't expect to hear from me again until mid-June (the wedding is this Saturday!).

Its interesting that sales are picking up... How long can it last? Not much longer (look at car and HDTV sales...).

Got popcorn?
Neil

4:19 PM, May 14, 2007  
Blogger LA__Renter said...

Housing downturns are never linear events especially in desirable areas. There does seem to be a sense of immunity to this downturn in many areas of southern California. The only way you can have that belief is with the assumption that the housing "food chain" does not apply. California will see record high foreclosures this year. The IE and parts of LA are already experiencing the outer bands of this storm. We have yet to see the full brunt of the ARM resets. All indications are showing that the lower end of the market throughout California is entering a severe downturn. It will take time but this will impact demand in areas such as the South Bay. You can't eliminate the move up buyer and not have it impact the nicer areas. IMO I think you are seeing a false sense of security that the worst has passed. It's almost as if this foreclosure tsunami isn't happening, yet the hard data shows that it is indeed happening and escalating. This phase of the downturn is really quite strange. For those who disagree with this view you may want to look at the Credit Suisse ARM reset schedule. We are in the 4th bar of this chart, look at the size of the bars moving forward. How people rationalize that the worst is over is beyond me in the face of this data.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html

12:02 PM, May 15, 2007  

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