Thursday, December 07, 2006

Some neighborhood statistics

I thought you might like to see some of the statistics I am seeing in my Redondo Beach database. Below is the first 30 entries of my unsold inventory table, when sorted in descending order by percent of price reduction. I have included the street name but won't divulge any more information about the properties, in order to protect the privacy of the guilty.

                     Current     Reduction  %   DOM
  Street             Price $     $$$       Red
1 Esplanade          609000      190000    0.24 180
2 184th              989999      259991    0.21 229
3 Mathews            789000      206000    0.21 347
4 Knob Hill          975000      250000    0.20 154
5 Marshallfield      740000      179500    0.20 162
6 Ford               699000      151000    0.18 146
7 The Village        745000      154900    0.17 109
8 Paseo de la Playa  698000      141000    0.17 203
9 Juanita            998000      201000    0.17 149
10 Elena             979000      196000    0.17 134
11 Anita             999000      200000    0.17 182
12 Pearl             670000      129000    0.16 65
13 Elena             989000      186000    0.16 134
14 Grant             565000      104000    0.16 169
15 Catalina          469000       86000    0.15 198
16 Calle Miramar    1389000      250000    0.15 135
17 Prospect          724999      124001    0.15 106
18 Havemeyer         699999      119001    0.15 183
19 Catalina          940000      155000    0.14 114
20 Helberta          998000      161000    0.14 106
21 Mathews           699000      110000    0.14 184
22 Sebald            739900      110000    0.13 118
23 Rockefeller       650000       95000    0.13 122
24 Bataan           1049000      151000    0.13 99
25 Carlson           769000      106000    0.12 178
26 Harper           1149000      150000    0.12 108
27 Harper           1149000      150000    0.12 108
28 The Village       974500      124500    0.11 66
29 Loma              960000      120000    0.11 67
30 The Village       445000       54000    0.11 87

The DOM figure is today's date minus the date the property was first listed, as far as I could tell. #3 on Mathews is just about a year on the market now. It is a pity that some of these sellers got caught in the market shift nearly a year ago, and their realtors were still assuming the price gain momentum was still intact. With the other 470+ unsold/unresolved properties in Redondo Beach that I see in my table, it's clear that it's just getting harder and harder to sell a property that's been on the market so long.

The Reduction $$$ is the total reduction taken from the original asking price, in dollars. When I look at the reduced properties in Zip Realty, it is apparent that some of the properties take serious reductions in big chunks, but a lot of them just nibble away and shave off $10K, sliver off $5K there, to the point where it makes me crazy.

The asking price on this property is now down to $899900, from an original $989900 in June. This townhouse sold as new construction in March 2004 at $810000.

7 Comments:

Blogger bearmaster said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

10:06 PM, December 07, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

#26 and #27 are actually new construction, the properties adjacent to each other. They are not duplicates.

10:07 PM, December 07, 2006  
Blogger wannabuy said...

I know its childish and immature... but am I the only one who wants to send a sheet cake to any property that breaks one year on the market? ;) Not a fancy one, just a simple cake with picture of a house on the front, one candle, and the words "congradulations for one year on the market."

Don't worry, I wouldn't really do it. However, there are several townhomes pulled off the market on N. Juanita. If any re-appear, I plan to visit them in march. Why? I toured them with my fiance' last March! Most were on the market until ~Thanksgiving and were then pulled. Yea... Schadenfreude... but if you're willing to price right, you could sell. (Several townhomes on the street did sell last year.)

Neil

12:21 PM, December 09, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Neil,

Maybe we should send the sheet cakes to the realtors who are listing those properties. They ought to be ashamed of themselves for not pricing "ahead of the curve." People are paying them good money for their services and they aren't getting good service IMO. A cake delivered with that kind of message would be a wake up call, definitely!

Of course I may be wrong - there are lots of good realtors out there who have gotten stuck with homesellers who are being stubborn and refusing to lower the asking price of the property. In those cases, the cake and congratulations should go to the seller.

So many in this market are operating with this built-in assumption that the market will be like the old days come spring. We shall see!

According to Melissa Data, December sales for RB have started out well. If this pace keeps up, the sales volume will almost hit the volume of December 05. But the average sales price is down therefore the total dollar volume will still be down, even if sales volume does match. I have yet to see these December sales confirmed at Domania.

Here's a picture of a Humpty Dumpty 1 year cake. Maybe I should use it as a symbol of time on market and state of the housing market.

Cheers.

1:11 PM, December 09, 2006  
Blogger stealthcat said...

The other day I happened to be browsing the ziprealty site, using their map feature. I searched for single family homes w/ reduced prices in the Hermosa/Redondo/Torrance area. I was surprised to find that just by casual observation, I had found 3-4 properties that are already underwater, and a few more that were close.

Other anecdotal info is that there seem to be a *ton* of "for-rent" signs in my neighborhood (N. Redondo), lately.

10:21 PM, December 09, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

This is what I mean about people in real estate assuming things will be "back to normal" soon.

This is from some Q&As in the December 10 L.A. Times. When a homeowner runs into trouble, the advice always seems to be to wait until things get better.

Seller's best bet might be to wait

Question: My home has been listed for more than nine months without selling. I've dropped the asking price to $36,000 less than I paid a year ago. My agent has done everything she can. But now I can't afford to pay a sales commission and pay off my mortgage. Nor can I afford to stay and pay the mortgage payments. What about those "cash-for-homes" companies I see advertising?

Answer: It sounds as if you bought at the peak of the market for your area. Those "cash-for-homes" companies buy at huge discounts from market value in return for quick cash sales.

Why are you selling? Unless you absolutely must sell now, I suggest you wait. Maybe you can rent part of or the entire house to help meet the mortgage payments.

Even in the best of times, it is difficult to sell a home and come out even, after paying sales expenses, until after at least three to five years of ownership.

8:04 AM, December 10, 2006  
Blogger wannabuy said...


Maybe we should send the sheet cakes to the realtors who are listing those properties. They ought to be ashamed of themselves for not pricing "ahead of the curve."


Great idea! I love it! A little "award" for the agency that is too foolish to move the product.

I love the humpty dumpty cake, it should be the image on the first house that you can document being on the market one year. I've saved *a lot* of fliers over the last 9 months... Dated and some have comments. So its almost time to dig them out and comment. Although, quite a few eventually sold...

That advice from the LA Times is pretty worthless... sadly, that buyer will see no relief. Time for a short sale.

The current frenzy of south bay activity amazes me... It will be interesting to see how many of the buyers are stuck with two properties... the sub-prime market eventually will effect the upgrade market. Oh, I know there is a 3 to 5 month delay... but eventually.

Neil

10:26 PM, December 10, 2006  

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