Monday, November 20, 2006

Other Measures of Beach Cities market activity, October 2006

Shorewood is suggesting that market signs are pointing to broader market stabilization. It is certainly true that the resale median home prices in the prior post do not appear to have been dented significantly so far this year. However, Shorewood's measure of average DOM, and our measure of (I-S)/S are strongly trending upward, suggesting to me that any so-called price stabilization is deceptive.

A note of caution - I am again having Shorewood check their numbers, because their data varies considerably from what Melissa Data reports in terms of sale volume in October. So these charts may just be preliminary.


Blogger bearmaster said...

Shorewood has confirmed its numbers, so DOM and I-S/S are confirmed for October.

11:22 AM, November 21, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Notice that surge in average DOM, in spite of a virtual epidemic of expired listings that get relisted, thus resetting the DOM counter on a house to 0.

Inventory is falling off in November, but sales still appear to be in the dumpster, so at this point I expect I-S/S to flatten a bit. Don't get fooled by glowing price reports, this measure is key. As long as it is working its way up...

I just don't have the data now, but I hope by February I'll be able to calculate a more realistic DOM that accounts for multiple relistings.

11:38 AM, November 21, 2006  

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