Tuesday, November 14, 2006

L.A. Times: Southern California home prices hold as sales continue to slow

Annette Haddad has come through with this November 14, 2006 report The median price of a home in the six-county Southern California region in October was $484,000, same as September, and 2.3% higher YOY. Sales fell 22.4% to 22,117, the worst October in a decade, but the rate of decline was the slowest since July.

The article states something we know - that buyers are waiting. What I haven't heard before, though, is that sellers who want to move are now reluctant to list their homes, for fear of not getting their asking prices.

Well, that's a new one. "If I don't list it then I won't have to find out if the market is tanking." There's nothing like sticking your fingers in your ears to block out bad news, is there.

YOY % price changes are expected to turn negative by the end of this year or early next year.

In spite of the continuing downdraft in sales volume, most regions, even San Diego, managed somewhat of a rebound in its %YOY price change. I guess this is why Greenspan and Lereah have been talking about a bottom.

County         sales % chg    # sales     price % chg    median price
Los Angeles    -21.8%                     +4.5%          $514,000
Orange         -24.9%          2715       +3.1%          $625,000 
Riverside      -24.2%                     +4.9%          $410,000
San Bernadino  -21.3%                     +2.3%          $362,000
San Diego                                 +2%            $485,000
Ventura        -19.6%           940       -2.3%          $582,000


Blogger beebs said...

Seems to me that sellers who have to sell can't wait. It isn't elective if you are moving due to a job transfer.

8:30 AM, November 16, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Good point. They may also need to sell urgently if they can no longer make payments or otherwise afford their places.

The L.A. Times claimed in the summer that 50% of the inventory out there was from potential sellers on a fishing expedition just to see if they could get their high asking price. (The Times was trying to make a case that the inventory numbers were "falsely inflated" due to this, which is bunk.)

There is still a great great deal of denial going on, if potential sellers are "reluctant" to list their homes for sale for fear of being unable to get their asking prices (as per L.A. Times within the last few days).

The situation is still very much like this, which I posted last spring. Spring 2007 could be quite a show, to say the least.

8:55 AM, November 16, 2006  

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