Thursday, February 02, 2006

Redondo Realtor reports for December-January

Not even the realtors here in Redondo Beach see things the same. But one thing is for sure, this area still seems relatively resistant to the slowdown that has infiltrated real estate markets in other parts of the state and the country.

As of February 2, 2006, realtor Robert Kissig ranks the current market conditions as 5/5, with 1=buyer's market and 5=seller's market. Current price trend he ranks 5/5, with 1=falling and 5=rising. He reports the following current stats, up from November 2005:

   NORTH Redondo:
   SFR median home price:          $765,000     +17.6%
   condo/townhouse median price:   $675,000     +8%

   SOUTH Redondo:
   SFR median home price:          $951,000     +7.4%
   condo/townhouse median price:   $663,000     +8%

According to realtor Don Tambini, in his January 31, 2006 Realty Times report, sales activity has slowed quite a bit in Redondo Beach. On a scale of 1 to 5 he gives the current market a 3 (midway between buyers and sellers) and the current price trend is 3 (flat, between falling and rising). The prices for single family residences (SFRs) was down slightly in December 2005 from December 2004, but condo prices have risen.

                     Dec 2005   Dec 2004
Number SFRs sold:    13         38
Average price:       $784,000   $841,000
Avg time on market:  46         24

For January:
SFRs on the market:        81
avg price:                 $1,113,000
avg time on market:        37
townhouses on the market:  91
avg price:                 $842,000
avg time on market:        38
condos on the market:      24
avg price:                 $741,000
avg time on market:        44

As of January 30, South Bay Home Team ranks the current market and the current price trend 5/5. SBHT reports the following YOY stats for December:

                                      Dec 2005   Dec 2004
Number of sales, all residence type:       248        340     -27%
Median sales price:                   $799,000   $679,000     +18%

(I don't understand why they rank the current market rating 5/5 if number of sales is -27%.)

Realtor Martine Klein ranks both the current market and the current price trend a 4/5. As of January 26, she reports longer days on the the market, lower prices per sq foot, and offers being accepted below asking prices. She believes this is the "usual slowdown at this time of year".

As of January 15, 2006, realtor Kay Grundhaus also thinks the cooling off is "normal for this time of year". She ranks the current market rating as 4/5 and the current price trend 3/5. She expects prices to go up another 10% in 2006.


Blogger No. Torrance Boy said...

I have grown up and still live in the South Bay. I see alot of for -sale signs. I am anxious to buy home but it just does not make economic sense that areas like Lawndale are going for over 500,000 dollars. My wife are both professionals with Master's degree and have been somewhat fiscally responsible over the last 5-7 years(no debt even before then). This market only encourages irresponsiblity. Keep your blog going,it is very interesting to see it in combination with the Ben Jones RE blog. I will pass your blog around to friends who reside in the South Bay.

11:57 AM, February 05, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

No. Torrance Boy,

Thanks, I'll do my best to keep this going. I wish I had tons more time to rake through real estate data some more and put up some charts.

I do get to North Torrance about once a week to visit some friends and walk their dogs - when the sun starts setting later and I can take some photos, I'll try to feature some Torrance properties too.

8:19 PM, February 07, 2006  
Blogger redondo beach dude said...

The feeling in the south bay is definitely changing. We've been here forever, too, and sold our Southwood home of 18 years in December '04 to move to south orange county. Well, we're back, renting, waiting, and watching for the market here to slowly but inevitably succumb to gravity. The fear of not buying and being left behind is being replaced by the fear of not selling at the top. More inventory, more days on the market, price reductions, reports of being 30-50% overvalued, etc. How long befor the "rush for the exits"? With Bernanke raising rates consistantly to 5.25 or 5.50, it could be mid to late summer. Stale inventory after the buying season will result in panicky baby-boomers seeing their nest-egg shrinking. It's not going to be pretty, like watching an accident in slow motion. If/when the yield curve inverts even further, and the chinese begin dumping their T-bonds, devaluing the $, increasing inflation even more... take cover and wait for the dust to settle.

12:06 PM, February 10, 2006  
Blogger redondo beach dude said...

P.S. bearmaster, TY for this blog, specific to our area. I'll be visiting here, often.

12:08 PM, February 10, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

I live at the extreme north end of North Redondo and it's not real clear yet what is going on. There is one house on the extreme west end a few blocks south of me that I see is marked down over 10% according to Zip Realty, which is the first markdown I've seen in double digits.

For years as part of the dance between buyers and sellers markdowns of 2-8% were not unusual. I'll know the avalanche has started rolling when I start seeing markdowns of 15% and more.

12:22 PM, February 10, 2006  
Blogger redondo beach dude said...

Contact a realtor as a buyer and ask to be put on auto email notifications for new listings and changed listings (price reductions). They'll set up any price range and area parameters you ask for. Since late December/early January, my inbox has been more and more full (7-10 listings a day) with new and reduced listings for 90277, 90254, and 90266. As I was forwarned last year by an investor in income property (rental units), the first sign of the move will be increased listings in duplexes, triplexes, 2-on-a-lots, etc. Well, this is happening now. The investors are the canary in the coalmine.

3:30 PM, February 10, 2006  

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