Monday, January 30, 2006

Sunday Morning Excursion, January 29, 2006

Sunday was a good day to take our neighbor's dog out for a run to the Redondo Beach dog park, so your faithful beach bubble reporter decided to take a camera along and see what's developing.

Update on 0252 Maharg #10, listed with RE/MAX. It is showing in the Zip Realty listings marked down to $515,000. A markdown of nearly 4.5% is not anything unusual, as we've seen markdowns of over 7% on some condos during the full boom years.

3152 Swehtam Avenue Unit A. Asking price for this condo is currently $785,000, and was just listed at Zip Realty on January 26, 2006.

This complex property was sold in July 2000 to a builder for $310,000, for the construction of three bubbleminiums. The price history since then is as follows:

Unit A Aug 04  $650,000
Unit B Aug 04  $639,000
Unit ? Mar 02  $415,000
Unit ? Mar 02  $432,000
Unit ? Feb 02  $410,000

If the seller were to get the asking price now, that's a 20.7% increase over the August 2004 selling price over 17 months, and perhaps a roughly 85% increase in price over the 2002 selling prices.

0025 Nosnibor Avenue. Asking price for this SFR is currently $1,290,000 for this 3,165 sq ft new "craftsman" home. This has been listed at Zip Realty since October 26, 2005. Prior to this construction was an old postwar house that was sold to a builder in August 2004 for $500,000. (If you click on the picture you'll see my significant other with the neighbor's dog in front of the house.)

8 Comments:

Blogger Blogger said...

That house is so close to the electric wires... Is that even safe?

11:02 PM, February 01, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

The proximity of the overhead wires is fine under reasonable conditions - unless a major wind storm or major earthquake were to hit or something.

4:38 AM, February 02, 2006  
Blogger Blogger said...

I wasn't concerned about the wires falling as much as I was for the side effects - magnetic fields, etc... I remember seeing stuff on 20/20 about how people living too close to power lines ended up with higher incidents of birth defects and other bad stuff...

12:27 PM, February 02, 2006  
Blogger sbdude said...

bearmaster,

I just stumbled on this blog today...very interesting. I think you're just ahead of the curve as far as the south bay is concerned. Things are about to change drastically...can't you just feel it? Six months from now there will be a substantial change in the RE market in the SB, and that will only be the start...just watch. The downward trend will feed upon itself in SoCal as the RE, construction and mortgage/refi industries slow dramatically...along with ARM resets, foreclosures and tightening lending standards.

Keep up the blog...you'll have many readers amazed you had this up and running before things really started unwinding.

3:21 PM, February 07, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

sbdude,

Being early is the story of my life - I was way early on the stock market too! : )

When we moved here in 1995 (at the end of a real estate slump) from Gardena, we still thought things were a bit pricey, which we sort of figured was the "premium" you paid for the area ... then in 1996 and 1997, pricier still, then things looked like they were starting to get out of hand in 1998.

If people really want to buy this overpriced overvalued market, that's fine, but there just isn't any resource to help people see what they are getting into from a price history perspective.

Thanks for the encouragement.

4:27 PM, February 07, 2006  
Blogger sbdude said...

bearmaster,

I have strong beliefs about where the overheated RE markets are headed in the relatively near future. They are based on a fair amount of research and a lot of common sense. Most people, especially in big cities such as LA, lack the prudence to wait for something like the RE market to cool before getting in or "buying up" to a more expensive piece of property. IMHO, the ones that have done either in certain RE markets (LA, San Diego, Frisco, Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, NY City, Boston, etc.) are at risk of being upside down on their property within a few years, maybe sooner.

People also need to recognize a RE "bubble" doesn't pop...it leaks air slowly over a period of years, losing more air in some years than others...simply the reverse of the way it became over-inflated in the first place.

My best advice for people frustrated with the high price of RE; Be patient...things are starting to change, can't you feel it?

5:39 PM, February 07, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

I think it is always good to do a gut check to examine the reason you are buying something... if it is because you feel it will be priced beyond your reach and you will never get "in", that is a very very bad sign. That's the "everybody's getting rich but me" type of thinking that can signal a market top.

8:15 PM, February 07, 2006  
Blogger ocrenter said...

there is no definitive medical link between high voltage power lines and birth defects or cancer. Having said that, I would never chose to live in that proximity, afterall, you can't prove that it DOESN'T cause those things either.

Now would someone actually pay 1.3million to incur such possible risk?

10:52 AM, February 10, 2006  

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