Friday, June 27, 2008

Beach Cities maps of distress

I fixed the RealtyTrac foreclosure map link in the sidebar. You can click it here (for some reason only IE works on my machines).

When the map comes up, you'll see a note that says Too many properties on map. Use the + and - tools in the upper left corner to zoom in and out.

To the left you'll also see a map key. Just keep in mind that R=resale and F=for sale by owner do not necessarily imply financial distress. It's the remaining symbols that, in my opinion, are more interesting.

Here's a map of my neighborhood in extreme north Redondo. My favorite section of north Redondo, the TRW Tract, is just a few blocks east of me. The boundary between Redondo Beach and Lawndale is Inglewood Avenue, and you can see even on that thin sliver of Lawndale that the symbols are much thicker east of Inglewood Avenue. Compared to Lawndale, there is relatively little financial distress - but it is increasingly popping up.

It's a shame there is no Hermosa Beach bubble blogger. So I'll post this distress map of Hermosa, which encompasses a northern portion of south Redondo. The triangular section bounded by Ripley Avenue-190th, Pacific Coast Highway, and Artesia Blvd has a greater distress density than Hermosa (west of PCH).

And here's Manhattan Beach. There is a smattering of distress activity. There is a gated community north of Marine that I have never set foot in - notice I have that labeled, as there are two distressed properties in there.

Here's El Segundo, with a similar smattering of activity.

Now for comparison, look at the distress density in a portion of Lawndale.


Housing bulls were telling us not long ago that property values would never decline more than 10-15% in the beach cities (read the comments in the link). Well we've sliced through that level. I've seen a few properties sell in excess of 20% markdown from the peak, and I see inventory with even greater price reductions.

As this decline is still young, I'll try and repost pictures periodically.

5 Comments:

Blogger Wayne said...

Thanks for posting the shots, and for your week and week commitment. I am curious why you used realtytrac as opposed to foreclosureradar. I have heard and personally found that realtytrac has a lot of outdated or simply incorrect listings. Isn't foreclosureradar supposed to be more accurate?

9:25 AM, June 27, 2008  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Hi Wayne,

I would expect any foreclosure maps to be a rear view mirror perspective.

Maybe by the time this market really bottoms (years into the future) we'll have real-time tickers for housing market activity.

When I try bringing up a Redondo Beach, CA map on ForeclosureRadar, I get "Invalid Search, try again." It is possible to view maps by zip code though.

At this current point in time, I see distress information for the TRW Tract missing on ForeclosureRadar. I happen to know of a house on Spurgeon that has just entered into distress. It shows up on RealtyTrac but not ForeclosureRadar. So I cannot conclude one is better than the other yet.

10:40 AM, June 27, 2008  
Blogger Wayne said...

Thanks, that is good to know--we will have to sign up for both when we start looking, which, of course, won't we until at least the winter and probably next year based on what we've read here and elsewhere. Do you read doctorhousingbubble.com? He is quite the statistics whiz...

8:51 AM, June 28, 2008  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Hi Wayne,

Let us know what you think of those services. I've always thought their subscriptions are a bit steep. On the other hand if I were in the business of buying and turning over foreclosed homes they could be valuable. (Not suggesting it's time to buy and/or flip.)

My significant other and I are planning to follow up on our trip of the West last summer and revisit eastern Nevada later this year - with the idea of looking for a place to live. I have a few local realtors in that area on my to-do list to contact.

No rush. We're just looking for a place to hunker down should the need arise.

There is just absolutely nothing in So Cal we would want.

11:24 AM, June 28, 2008  
Blogger Wayne said...

Sounds like you think South Bay capitulation is still a ways off--especially given your latest story pulled from the Breeze, and the number of Redondo NODs I see liked up on Foeclosureradar, I think the ice break sooner...we need you!

9:07 PM, June 28, 2008  

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