Preliminary look at February 2008 Redondo Beach sales

I am still scraping sale data out of the Manhattan Beach Reporter. Zillow is starting to get a little more usable so maybe somebody there is finally doing something to improve their website. MBR does not give exact sale dates so my estimates continue to fall on the first day of the reporting period.

I can't really draw major conclusions yet from such sparse sale data, but the drops in February are interesting. There were almost no well-heeled buyers (the kind who can just write a check) closing a sale in February, if this data is of any value.

It's obvious how credit has been the lifeblood of our economy, isn't it? Never mind that it caused all kinds of value dislocations to begin with, but when it's taken away the credit junkies squeal bloody murder.

STAT     AUG 2007   SEP 2007   OCT 2007  NOV  2007   DEC 2007   JAN 2008    FEB 2008
records        51         68         44         37         26         25          25
MEDIAN   $850,000   $857,000   $755,000   $832,500   $782,500   $795,000    $755,000   
AVERAGE  $867,925   $935,506   $770,416   $933,956   $832,827   $932,117    $831,500
MIN      $365,000   $369,900   $369,900   $379,000   $486,500   $449,900    $520,000
MAX    $1,510,000 $2,400,000 $2,560,000 $2,500,000 $1,500,000 $2,130,000  $1,590,000

For February 2007, I had 64 sale records, median was $745,358, average was $787,799, min was $387,500, and max was $1,878,000. The difference between 64 sales and 25 sales is the collapse of a market which was already teetering a year ago. That's the only thing we can be certain of. Median price is practically flat YOY.

I found it interesting that concomitant with the drop in prices there has been a rise in median square footage in the homes sold. That would indicate to me that real estate dollars are stretching further to buy more real estate, but at these still-insane prices, that means nothing. The value isn't really there yet by a long shot.

Part of the reason we've seen DOM rising over the last month or two is due to seasonal slowness. But take note - the time spent hustling the homes sold in February was a median 4 months (119 days).

The median reduction from original asking price dropped slightly from last month, down to 8.7% from 9.5%. On its own, this measurement doesn't necessarily mean anything but has to be taken in context with everything else. Reductions are up considerably from the reductions of, say, a year ago, and I am seeing reductions every day on Zip Realty - and trying to log them all! There are more of the 5%-10% and fewer of the frivolous $10,000 at a time reductions. When PCTRED shrinks, that would indicate to me that sellers are getting better at realistically pricing their homes, but if prices continue to spiral down, I would expect PCTRED to expand again, waiting for sellers to catch up to the market.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) has put out new conforming loan limits. You can read them in this PDF file. It looks like Los Angeles has been maxed out at $729,500 for a single home unit, which is going to shoehorn in a lot of listed Redondo Beach properties that would not have otherwise been eligible.

One thing I am fairly certain of is that there is no shortage of wannabe homebuyers shopping for falling knives. So if the new limits resuscitate this market, expect some sales that would otherwise have occurred by now to get pushed forward into late March, April, and May.

By the way, if the February sales listed in MBR are accurate, it looks like three of the six properties at Mansel Villas have been sold. I have not blogged about them because I have been unable to find a website for them. Those units have been close competitors to the Ruxton Lane development (just search this blog), which have all seen some price slashing in recent weeks.