Friday, March 07, 2008

Preliminary look at February 2008 Redondo Beach sales

I am still scraping sale data out of the Manhattan Beach Reporter. Zillow is starting to get a little more usable so maybe somebody there is finally doing something to improve their website. MBR does not give exact sale dates so my estimates continue to fall on the first day of the reporting period.

I can't really draw major conclusions yet from such sparse sale data, but the drops in February are interesting. There were almost no well-heeled buyers (the kind who can just write a check) closing a sale in February, if this data is of any value.

It's obvious how credit has been the lifeblood of our economy, isn't it? Never mind that it caused all kinds of value dislocations to begin with, but when it's taken away the credit junkies squeal bloody murder.

STAT     AUG 2007   SEP 2007   OCT 2007  NOV  2007   DEC 2007   JAN 2008    FEB 2008
records        51         68         44         37         26         25          25
MEDIAN   $850,000   $857,000   $755,000   $832,500   $782,500   $795,000    $755,000   
AVERAGE  $867,925   $935,506   $770,416   $933,956   $832,827   $932,117    $831,500
MIN      $365,000   $369,900   $369,900   $379,000   $486,500   $449,900    $520,000
MAX    $1,510,000 $2,400,000 $2,560,000 $2,500,000 $1,500,000 $2,130,000  $1,590,000

For February 2007, I had 64 sale records, median was $745,358, average was $787,799, min was $387,500, and max was $1,878,000. The difference between 64 sales and 25 sales is the collapse of a market which was already teetering a year ago. That's the only thing we can be certain of. Median price is practically flat YOY.

I found it interesting that concomitant with the drop in prices there has been a rise in median square footage in the homes sold. That would indicate to me that real estate dollars are stretching further to buy more real estate, but at these still-insane prices, that means nothing. The value isn't really there yet by a long shot.

Part of the reason we've seen DOM rising over the last month or two is due to seasonal slowness. But take note - the time spent hustling the homes sold in February was a median 4 months (119 days).

The median reduction from original asking price dropped slightly from last month, down to 8.7% from 9.5%. On its own, this measurement doesn't necessarily mean anything but has to be taken in context with everything else. Reductions are up considerably from the reductions of, say, a year ago, and I am seeing reductions every day on Zip Realty - and trying to log them all! There are more of the 5%-10% and fewer of the frivolous $10,000 at a time reductions. When PCTRED shrinks, that would indicate to me that sellers are getting better at realistically pricing their homes, but if prices continue to spiral down, I would expect PCTRED to expand again, waiting for sellers to catch up to the market.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) has put out new conforming loan limits. You can read them in this PDF file. It looks like Los Angeles has been maxed out at $729,500 for a single home unit, which is going to shoehorn in a lot of listed Redondo Beach properties that would not have otherwise been eligible.

One thing I am fairly certain of is that there is no shortage of wannabe homebuyers shopping for falling knives. So if the new limits resuscitate this market, expect some sales that would otherwise have occurred by now to get pushed forward into late March, April, and May.

By the way, if the February sales listed in MBR are accurate, it looks like three of the six properties at Mansel Villas have been sold. I have not blogged about them because I have been unable to find a website for them. Those units have been close competitors to the Ruxton Lane development (just search this blog), which have all seen some price slashing in recent weeks.

8 Comments:

Blogger bearmaster said...

The rate of new inventory coming on line is picking up steadily, currently over 3 a day, and the markdowns continue.

3:16 PM, March 08, 2008  
Blogger wannabuy said...

I found it interesting that concomitant with the drop in prices there has been a rise in median square footage in the homes sold. That would indicate to me that real estate dollars are stretching further to buy more real estate, but at these still-insane prices, that means nothing. The value isn't really there yet by a long shot.
There seems to be a local drop in the Case-Shiller index. ;)

Afford ability isn't even close. The sudden appearance of full doc loans to $730k won't restart the bubble. Instead buyers and sellers will discover who really qualifies. For buyers, many will be discouraged. For sellers... they'll still stay in denial. ;)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

11:01 PM, March 08, 2008  
Blogger hopeful?hopeless? said...

I've been going to a few open houses lately. To see what the houses REALLY look like and to see if there is a decent realtor out there. Long story short, all the realtors think prices are still going up in redondo. When I mention price reductions & houses selling below asking prices they actually laugh & say "well, they weren't priced right"....okay...yeah.
Anyway, we are looking because we just had a baby & our place is getting cramped. Obviously we don't want to catch a falling knife, but do I believe these realtors telling me the south bay is "different" and prices here will NEVER come down? My husband says prices will come down here, but only 10-15%. I think (hope) more to fall in line with affordability. Husband says affordability isn't even a factor when it comes to South Bay. I say he's wrong about redondo-most of our friends in LA won't even come down here because they think it's too far. I think alot of people feel that way. I think it's far flung location makes it less desireable than Manhattan & Hermosa. Anyway, I would love to hear your predictions over the next couple of years?
Also, one realtor handed me a YOY comparison for a bunch of LA cities with Redondo Beach posting a 8% YOY gain...problem was this was OCT 06-OCT 07

5:26 PM, March 09, 2008  
Blogger bearmaster said...

It doesn't sound like you've read very much on this blog yet.

Affordability remains a huge joke, and most affordability calculations assume that everybody's going to keep their job and their incomes will continue to rise. I do not live by that assumption as this economy is teetering on the edge.

What your husband says about the South Bay declining "at most" 10-15% isn't true. Sure, one can take a list of sales and calculate a "median" off of it, but if it's just a handful of sales and there remains a backlog of unsold homes, the figure has no merit in explaining what the "value" is of all those remaining unsold homes.

What is "value" anyway? Value is a notion that exists in the synapses of peoples' brains, it's not something chiseled in concrete and written in the law. Value can go poof and disappear in an electron flash between 2 neurons.

I can give you an example of a listed property right now that is marked down nearly 25% from its last peak selling price (not asking price). It was new construction in 2005 and the realtor who bought it foreclosed on it. I've got several records of short sales too.

During the last downturn in the early-mid 90's there were stories about values going down 50% in some of the nicer parts around here.

If you don't believe me, spend a day at the Los Angeles City Library and peruse the Los Angeles Times story archives starting from about 1988.

I'll even quote from a story from the South Bay edition of the Los Angeles Times, November 5, 1992:

Property values are skidding in the boots-and-saddles suburbs on the wealthy Palos Verdes Peninsula. Homes listed at $2.5 million two years ago are being sold in foreclosures at less than half that price, records and listings show.

Then go to Zip Realty, and pull up Redondo Beach. Sort the listings by ascending price. There is currently about 6 pages of listings with prices below $600,000. There were instances of time in 2006 with NO listings below $600,000. And it's not just the new little box condos that are at the lower prices.

Now if Palos Verdes had properties that declined by as much as 50%, how do you think RB is going to hold up this time around, in a downturn that is shaping up to be orders of magnitude greater than the last one?

I continue to be amazed at the short memories, the rationalizations for jumping in and buying, the unwillingness to do historical research for probably the most important financial decision that anybody makes. I hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I don't operate on the assumption that life will always be good in the South Bay and that the disaffected will remain content to sit back and leave well enough alone in the more affluent communities. I do remember that the Rodney King riots were an excuse by the disaffected to rob, steal, loot, and beat up and try killing people and I believe that mindset will reappear as those poorer communities are going to be hit very severely in the coming years. In my opinion this is not a time to be wearing money, living in it, driving it down the street, or looking financially ostentatious in any way.

I will sit back and laugh when the knife catchers materialize and rush in to buy this spring. It's all happened before. There is nothing new going on.

Here is a summary of the Los Angeles Times archives from about 1988 to 1997, captured in a series of articles I wrote for another website:

The Last Great Housing Slump

6:32 PM, March 09, 2008  
Blogger Nick said...

For what it's worth, my personal metric / prediction:

Housing will have bottomed when the inventory is back to 4 months (for at least 6 months time). I would expect by that time prices will have dropped at least 50% when adjusted for inflation (which could make the actual drop marginally less). That won't happen until foreclosures et-all work their way through the legal process, which will take a few years at least, just due to the various processes and procedures which are in place to enrich lawyers.

As for a prediction for the bottom, markets usually over-react (in both directions), so I would speculate that the bottom will be near construction cost, if not below. Currently, that would be around $120/sq-foot plus land cost, as far as I can estimate from online resources. Land cost is still very variable per-area, so it might be hard to get more precise than that, but that's my opinion, for what it's worth. :)

7:32 PM, March 10, 2008  
Blogger Mario said...

All the doomsayers and psuedo-intellectuals pretending they can PREDICT what will happen in the real estate market. I used to be a school teacher (Science/Math), Four years ago bought eight properties (some with sub-prime loans). I purchased mainly rentals units. Today I am no longer a school teacher, but retired at 49, living in a Beach House with a corvette and mercedes SL paid off cash. Boy, I am glad I didn't listen to all the "know-it-alls". I wasn't afraid to take a risk....like the doomsayer.. lol... golf anyone? (oh that's right, you have to go to work because you know so much about real estate. You know, as a rule most real estate doubles every ten years..when I am sixty...I should be worth 12m....so keep telling us how smart you are so I can continue laughing.......

12:38 AM, March 16, 2008  
Blogger Mario said...

All the doomsayers and psuedo-intellectuals pretending they can PREDICT what will happen in the real estate market. I used to be a school teacher (Science/Math), Four years ago bought eight properties (some with sub-prime loans). I purchased mainly rentals units. Today I am no longer a school teacher, but retired at 49, living in a Beach House with a corvette and mercedes SL paid off cash. Boy, I am glad I didn't listen to all the "know-it-alls". I wasn't afraid to take a risk....like the doomsayer.. lol... golf anyone? (oh that's right, you have to go to work because you know so much about real estate. You know, as a rule most real estate doubles every ten years..when I am sixty...I should be worth 12m....so keep telling us how smart you are so I can continue laughing.......

12:40 AM, March 16, 2008  
Blogger Mario said...

Darn I am glad I didn't listen to all the doom and gloom pseudo-intellectuals on real estate. I purchased eight properties within the last four years. I presently collect 30K a month in rents (I don't care what value the properties are or if they go down to zero dollars) All I know is that I listened to know-it-all's (most don't own more than one property). I would still be a school teacher The definition of having money to me is not having to take any s..t off people, not the amount. Today I drive nice cars (paid off) take great vacations and don't have to work if I choose not to..golf anyone?

12:53 AM, March 16, 2008  

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