Los Angeles County South Bay Beach Cities Real Estate $$$ Transacted for September 2007
There's no question about it - dollar volume in many zip codes is plummeting. Even hot areas like 90064 (Rancho Park), are seeing hairpin turns in dollar volume, though the YOY graph, which is derived from a moving average of dollar volume, does not reflect that change yet. It continues to amaze me how how Los Angeles County real estate continues to levitate on a layer of helium and hemp smoke (high-end luxury homes).
Before I forget to tell you, I expanded my Southwest Los Angeles County coverage to include zip codes 90247 (Gardena), 90274 (PV), and 90710 (Harbor City). These areas have had extremely volatile and wacky graphs. When folded in with the Southwest Los Angeles County charts, though, the volume of data smooths things over a bit. I think most people visiting here understand the limitations of the data I get.
Beach city sales volume was comparable to last year (144 in 2007 versus 148 in 2006). Dollar volume was $172 million versus $163 million.
Redondo Beach sales volume was up (79 in 2007 versus 72 in 2006). Dollar volume was $71 million versus $57 million.
Looking at the sales volume charts for the beach cities and Redondo Beach, notice that sales volume peaked in the spring of 2002 (again, my data is limited, and only goes to the beginning of 2002). This area has been relying on price gains for many many years to offset the decline in volume and keep the gravy train rolling. It must not be easy being your average realtor right now, when just a few short years ago price gains of 20% and more were the expectation.
Inventory, at least Redondo Beach inventory, has been hitting the market at a pretty good clip. For the first few days of October, new inventory was greater than 4 properties a day. To me, inventory is increasingly looking like that irritating pebble in the boot. But I'll save that for another post.
For details on individual zip codes, visit the regional tracker, along with our Google map tool of the same data.
YOY Comparisons
Compares a moving average of $$$ volume to the prior year - a measure of Acute Pain.
Realtors fat and happy 90094 62.0% Playa Vista 90064 59.5% Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90254 52.4% Hermosa Beach 90293 46.7% Playa del Rey 90291 24.7% Venice 90277 24.0% Redondo Beach (south) Doing well 90277-90278 10.0% Redondo Beach combined 90732 9.9% San Pedro/Rancho PV Hanging in there... 90278 0.6% Redondo Beach (north) beach cities 0.4% 4 Beach Cities combined Losing a grip... 90275 -0.7% Palos Verdes Estates 90292 -1.1% Marina del Rey 90036 -1.4% Park La Brea 90503 -1.5% Torrance 90505 -6.4% Torrance 90008 -8.4% Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park 90066 -9.4% Mar Vista Slip sliding away... 90034 -13.0% Palms 90266 -14.8% Manhattan Beach 90401-90405 -16.0% Santa Monica combined 90045 -16.1% Westchester SW county -17.4% Southwest L.A. County 90035 -20.0% West Fairfax 90019 -20.6% Country Club Park/Mid City 90232 -24.3% Culver City 90230 -25.1% Culver City 90250 -25.3% Hawthorne 90501-90505 -29.4% Torrance Combined Sliding over a cliff... 90717 -30.1% Lomita 90007 -34.1% South Central 90504 -39.8% Torrance 90016 -40.1% West Adams 90047 -41.1% South Central 90044 -41.5% Athens 90245 -42.2% El Segundo 90745 -42.4% Carson 90056 -42.9% Ladera Heights 90249 -43.1% Gardena 90501 -43.3% Torrance 90304 -47.2% Lennox 90018 -48.9% Jefferson Park 90260 -49.0% Lawndale 90303 -50.0% Inglewood Off the cliff... 90302 -50.7% Inglewood 90746 -54.6% Carson 90043 -55.0% Hyde Park, Windsor Hills 90062 -56.1% South Central 90037 -59.3% South Central 90301 -60.1% Inglewood 90301-90305 -62.9% Inglewood/Lennox combined 90502 -66.3% Torrance 90305 -78.2% Inglewood 90744 -98.7% Wilmington
"Relative Strength"
A longer-term view of the strength of dollar volume, with 4.5 being the strongest (suffering the least amount of chronic pain) and 0.1 being the weakest (suffering the most chronic pain).
90094 4.5 Playa Vista 90305 3.2 Inglewood 90044 2.1 Athens 90034 1.9 Palms 90746 1.8 Carson 90292 1.6 Marina del Rey 90047 1.4 South Central 90301-90305 1.3 Inglewood/Lennox combined 90062 1.3 South Central 90502 1.3 Torrance 90304 1.2 Lennox 90018 1.2 Jefferson Park 90007 1.1 South Central 90303 1.1 Inglewood 90745 1.1 Carson 90302 1.1 Inglewood 90016 1.1 West Adams 90301 1.1 Inglewood 90250 1.0 Hawthorne 90037 1.0 South Central 90043 0.9 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills 90732 0.8 San Pedro/Rancho PV 90249 0.8 Gardena 90019 0.8 Country Club Park/Mid City 90501 0.8 Torrance 90260 0.7 Lawndale 90293 0.7 Playa del Rey 90230 0.7 Culver City 90503 0.7 Torrance 90008 0.6 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park SW county 0.5 Southwest L.A. County 90501-90505 0.5 Torrance Combined 90291 0.5 Venice 90036 0.5 Park La Brea 90064 0.5 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90245 0.5 El Segundo 90232 0.5 Culver City 90045 0.5 Westchester 90278 0.5 Redondo Beach (north) 90254 0.5 Hermosa Beach 90066 0.4 Mar Vista 90056 0.4 Ladera Heights 90035 0.4 West Fairfax 90744 0.4 Wilmington 90717 0.3 Lomita 90277-90278 0.3 Redondo Beach combined 90401-90405 0.3 Santa Monica combined 90505 0.3 Torrance beach cities 0.3 4 Beach Cities combined 90504 0.3 Torrance 90266 0.3 Manhattan Beach 90277 0.2 Redondo Beach (south) 90275 0.1 Palos Verdes Estates
posted by bearmaster at 8:48 AM
2 Comments:
nice post, bear. 90094 has had a huge amount of inventory hit the market this year. construction is completed on many new bldgs.
That would explain the sheer $ volume of the zipcode. I am getting spammed by PDR builders to come look at their stuff. Lots of banners lining Jefferson and Lincoln blvds as well.
HOA fees are high in the project. Combined amounts over $550. Prop Tax = 750/month (typical). That's a good 1,300 before you even pay your mortgage.
Bearmaster,
First, thanks for the books. I'm only 200 pages into "Pioneering Studies in Socionomics" but its great!
Are you tracking the pain for each zip code with time? It would be really interesting to see these numbers in a year or so. e.g., see how much seasonality there is or how much noise.
This October through February time frame looks to be when perceptions change.
Got popcorn?
Neil
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