Friday, September 14, 2007

Have mortgage market earthquakes affected Redondo Beach sales?

The big question, of course, is how mortgage market earthquakes have disrupted financing this market. And it's very difficult to answer. What I ended up doing was dividing 2007 sales data into two sets - one from January through June, before the turmoil really started to hit, then another set that covers July and August. Then I tabulated the sales in each set according to sale price. From the chart below, you can see the most significant changes in the percentage that each price category contributes to sales are in the 600K column (a decrease), the 800K column (a decrease), and the 900K column (an increase). Not the greatest of representations, but it'll suffice for lack of anything better.

It's laughable to call any property at all in Redondo Beach "low end", but a lot of it is probably financed by jumbos.

6 Comments:

Blogger wannabuy said...

Bearmaster,

I e-mailed you contact info for the 9/30/2007 bubble dinner. To your bearmaster at beartopia account.

Got popcorn?
Neil

6:58 PM, September 14, 2007  
Blogger LA__Renter said...

It appears to me that the Sept data will be a much better read on the mortgage crises. Most people purchase with 30 day locks, so anything that funded/closed in August was possibly locked in July or early August before the mortgage meltdown. It will be interesting to see the data for Sept.

12:01 PM, September 15, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

That's what I thought at first, but sales started picking up toward the end of August and are maintaining a pretty good pace as of the first part of September. (At least, the pace is good relative to 2006.)

In my prior post I show median price dropping back back down, which sort of tells me that sales from the "low end" are picking up again.

1:00 PM, September 15, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

At current sales rates as shown in Melissa Data, projecting out to the end of September gives me the following September sales volume guessestimates:

90245 18 2006 sales = 13
90254 25 2006 sales = 19
90266 44 2006 sales = 44
90277 39 2006 sales = 23
90278 69 2006 sales = 49

If the rate of sales starts showing a dropoff this week, which will be about a month after August 9, then we'll know something has changed. (August 9 is the day "everything changed in terms of how easy it was to come by jumbo loans, according to L.A. Business Journal.)

8:24 AM, September 16, 2007  
Blogger redondo_beach_dude said...

Is the bubble dinner here in the South Bay?

9:27 AM, September 17, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Check recomments.blogspot.com for the latest on the HBB dinner.

9:47 AM, September 17, 2007  

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