Thursday, March 15, 2007

More Redondo Beach sales statistics for February 2007

If you are trying to sell a home in Redondo Beach and you are pricing it realistically, not holding on to last year's dream asking price, it can still take at least 4 months to get it sold. That's about twice the published DOM for the beach cities. If you are new to this blog, I calculate DOM from an original listing date I have in my own records. I don't rely on the DOM statistic in MLS listings.

February was not especially a good month for selling bloatominiums. The median square feet of properties sold was 1639.

Here is a view of what sold in terms of SQFT versus SALEPRICE in February. Offhand I'd say that the best "deals" were below that red line. But they were deals only for about 10 minutes. By this time next year it will probably be apparent that the buy-the-dipsters overpaid.

Here is a comparison of outstanding inventory versus February sales. This includes all records in my dataset for which there are no sales recorded, not just the new inventory in February. As you can see, all the outstanding inventory is pretty consistent with the new inventory in February that I showed in prior postings. There is a stingy amount of inventory to meet buyer demand in the lower end, up to $800,000, particularly in the $700,000-$750,000 range.

You can see the spread of February sales against outstanding inventory here. The blue diamonds are the inventory and the red squares are the February sales.

This is the same chart blown up in the region of the median asking price point and the median sale price point. The big green dot is the nearest sale to the median sale point, and the big yellow triangle is the nearest inventory listing to the median inventory point.


Blogger bearmaster said...

By the way, 90278 sales this month are looking and feeling a lot like 2005 all over again, in terms of sales volume and prices. Only this is on the way down, with lots more inventory, when back in 2005, it was on the way up.

The other beach city sales for March so far range from dismal to so-so.

9:37 PM, March 15, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...


Thanks again for the info! Due to my pending nuptuals... I'm having to cut back on my housing reading, but your blog remains at the top of my watch list. :)

Could I ask a small favor? Could you put the slope and intercept on your SQFT vs. salesprice graph? It appears the slope is about $220/sqft. I'm curious as the actual premium being paid for larger homes and how that premium shifts with time.

Ok, here is what I'd like to track:
Knowing the intercept gives an indication of what the "lot value" trend is doing. So by plotting the intercept with time, we see a trend on the underlying land value (very gross approximation). My calibrated eye puts the intercept for a zero square foot house at about $350k. Is that more or less than previous months? Do note, I expect the trend to be noisy.

Next, we could plot the trend of the slope. This would tell us what premium is being paid for space.

What I expect to see is the intercept decline with time and then platau (land hits its bottom value). This is followed by the slope declining. We will probably actually see a point where the intercept jumps up and the slope keeps declining (but will never go below $100/sqft due to family "needs.").

Again, I'm volunteering to do the work (although, post my wedding would probably be best).

Got popcorn?

9:13 AM, March 20, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...


One nitpick...

You say stingy amount of inventory at the level people are buying... yet counting the dots, I see plenty.

I would argue that there is such an overhang of overpriced inventory that we'll see "Jim the Realtor's" big squish down. I don't seen low end buyers bidding up.

Interesting on the sales volume. I guess its about time for the "bull trap."

The other beach city sales for March so far range from dismal to so-so.

And once the credit tightening gets felt... ouch. Wells Fargo just dropped mast DTI to 50% (from 55%).

I'm not thinking that's good for sales in the 1.0M to 2.0M range... ;) All the wanna be Trumps are going to be looking for an exit.

Above that level... eh... I know too many who pay cash. But up to $2.5M, lots of debt.

Got popcorn?

9:20 AM, March 20, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Keep in mind that the vast bulk of this inventory is "hidden" inventory, properties whose listings have expired and have not necessarily relisted (yet). My definition of inventory is very different from the count in the MLS listings.

So at a given point in time, there is only a portion of that sea of dots really "on the market". The rest of the dots are psychological hangover, not visible unless you've been watching it for a year. When I look at the $700-$750K range right now, I find only 13 properties in Zip's listings. I forgot to note out of the charts whether I took the sales out of my SUPPLY records (48) or out of my pure SALE records (64?). 20.5% of those numbers puts February sales in the $700-$750K range between 9 and 13, which is extremely tight.

9:33 AM, March 20, 2007  

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