Friday, January 05, 2007

Real Estate $$$ Transacted through December 2006

Sorry these charts are a bit later than usual. I have not done any zip code aggregation as I mentioned in my intentions a month ago, and may defer it for the time being. But I have discontinued the column charts for dollar volume, consolidating two charts of columns into two lines on a single line chart. Doing this has cut down the number of charts I publish each month by 33%, saving me a chunk of time.

There was a good pickup of sales volume in quite a few areas, including the slumping beach cities. In a few cases the number of sales in a zip code exceeded that of December 2005, but since average prices for so many areas are down substantially, the total $$$ transacted remains down over last year. Some of the "affordable" areas, of course, remain strong. The pickup in sales appears to be extending into January, at least into these first few days of the month.

Of the beach cities, Hermosa Beach 90254 remains in the deepest slump, with dollar volume down over 50% on the moving average of the YOY dollar volume measure. Manhattan Beach 90266 chart lines remain pointed down, with YOY on the moving average down over 24%. Redondo Beach 90277 is down nearly 24% YOY on the moving average, but continues to rebound from the record -40% low from around July. Redondo 90278 is down over 31%, mildly recovering from a deeper -35% from around October. El Segundo 90245 has been the most resilient of the beach cities, but YOY finally fell below 0% in November and the signs are that the dollar volume there will continue its downward trend. The westside continues overall to remain in its slump.

Although there has been a good sales volume rebound in some places, the fact remains that there is a hangover of many many unsold homes from 2006. In addition there will be new inventory coming on the market for 2007. I expect it to start trickling into listings toward the end of January. Unless Los Angeles homeowners decide to stay put in 2007 and universally agree to not sell their homes, something I don't see as likely at all, there isn't any way any little blip in sales we see now is going to absorb that hangover. January might see some continuing rebound, but then after that I expect prospective sellers to start thawing out and coming out of the woodwork.

Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Torrance combined continues to decline at the same rate as in November. Inglewood/Lennox combined is softening, from over 29% YOY in November to over 20% in December. In Santa Monica combined, dollar volume has recovered mildly from -55% YOY in November to -45% now. Parts of South Central and the more affordable areas of Los Angeles continue to show positive numbers. Carson 90746 continues to do very well.

Here are December's YOY numbers. Click here for November's YOY numbers for comparison. Real estate on steroids (realtors fat and happy):

90305        126.1%    Inglewood
90746         30.4%    Carson
90301-90305   20.3%    Inglewood/Lennox combined
Doing very well:
90303         14.4%    Inglewood
90302         11.1%    Inglewood
90037          8.7%    South Central
90044          6.3%    Athens
Nobody's hanging in there! Slip sliding away:
90047         -1.8%    South Central
90260         -2.6%    Lawndale
90249         -6.4%    Gardena
90250         -6.4%    Hawthorne
90062         -7.9%    South Central
90502         -8.3%    Torrance
90066        -10.8%    Mar Vista
90043        -10.9%    Hyde Park, Windsor Hills
Losing a grip:
90301        -13.1%    Inglewood
90007        -14.6%    South Central
90304        -17.3%    Lennox
90016        -17.7%    West Adams
90045        -18.2%    Westchester
90232        -18.6%    Culver City
90744        -19.0%    Wilmington
90245        -19.0%    El Segundo
90501        -20.0%    Torrance
90008        -23.1%    Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park
90230        -23.3%    Culver City
90277        -23.8%    Redondo Beach (south)
90266        -24.1%    Manhattan Beach
90504        -25.0%    Torrance
About to go over a cliff (realtors getting hungry):
90035        -25.3%    West Fairfax
90018        -25.5%    Jefferson Park
90501-90505  -27.7%    Torrance Combined
90277-90278  -28.4%    Redondo Beach combined
90056        -29.5%    Ladera Heights
90732        -29.6%    San Pedro/Rancho PV
90717        -29.7%    Lomita
beach cities -30.3%    4 Beach Cities combined
90278        -31.3%    Redondo Beach (north)
90019        -32.6%    Country Club Park/Mid City
90275        -33.0%    Palos Verdes Estates
90293        -36.4%    Playa del Rey
90505        -36.6%    Torrance
90503        -38.1%    Torrance
90292        -41.2%    Marina del Rey
90064        -42.0%    Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills
90745        -42.7%    Carson
90034        -43.5%    Palms
90036        -43.8%    Park La Brea
90401-90405  -45.1%    Santa Monica combined
90291        -45.9%    Venice
Sliding down a cliff (realtors really hungry)!
90254        -50.2%    Hermosa Beach
90094        -64.8%    Playa Vista

If you are new to this blog, please visit the Beartopia regional tracker for an explanation of these numbers. This is not price data! The regional tracker shows real estate transaction dollar volume for most zip codes west of the 110 freeway and south of the 10 freeway. Our Google map tool shows where these zip codes are on a map.


Blogger bearmaster said...

Just this Friday alone, I spotted five new listings in the Zip Realty Redondo inventory. Inventory seems to be starting a trend back up.

I could be wrong about "late" January for inventory to really flood the market, it could be happening a bit sooner. Maybe all that pentup "leash" aggression, LOL.

4:52 PM, January 05, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...


I'm suspecting a disconnect between zipreality and actual listings this year. Why? There were just too many open houses on 1/6/07. My fiancee and I were able to walk in 5 in under an hour.

We'll probably be at record inventory by end of February. The inventory flood has already started.

And a little birdie told me about a few hundred more engineers (not my company) being offered voluntary relocation to Colorado. Demand to move out of state exceeds the number of job slots going...

2007 will be interesting.


9:12 AM, January 07, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Hi Neil,

I think Zip Realty is already showing the flood, but the difference is that Zip Realty calls the entries "new" listings whereas from our viewpoint this is just a previous would-be seller re-re listing.

Right now Zip Realty shows 34 "new" listings since 1/1 and 40 "new" listings since Christmas. It shows only 2 price reductions since Christmas.

My database shows only 14 more genuinely new listings since 1/1 and 17 new listings since Christmas. It shows 12 price adjustments since Christmas.

It's doubtful that it matters which column the listing falls in, whether it's new or a relisting, the pressure to sell has been building up like water behind the Johnstown Dam. Out of my database of 583 entries only 43 have matched sales. Even if the finalized December sales were to magically double that, that still accounts for less than 15% of 583 properties.

By the way, I think there is still a ton of complacence or arrogance out there. Some of the price adjustments I've seen in Zip Realty are actuall price INCREASES, if you can believe it.

Yes, spring will be interesting. Grab some popcorn, sit back and watch this drama unfold.

10:24 AM, January 07, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

My database shows only 14 more genuinely new listings since 1/1 and 17 new listings since Christmas. It shows 12 price adjustments since Christmas.

Oops, this was misleading. My own DB shows only 14 (now 15) seemingly new listings, not 14 more than Zip Realty.

Total number of SFR and condo properties in my Redondo Beach DB for which I have no sales record is now 541. Personally I think this market is in a chaotic state of flux and few in the industry are willing to acknowledge it as such.

9:53 PM, January 07, 2007  

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