Real Estate $$$ Transacted through December 2006
Sorry these charts are a bit later than usual. I have not done any zip code aggregation as I mentioned in my intentions a month ago, and may defer it for the time being. But I have discontinued the column charts for dollar volume, consolidating two charts of columns into two lines on a single line chart. Doing this has cut down the number of charts I publish each month by 33%, saving me a chunk of time.
There was a good pickup of sales volume in quite a few areas, including the slumping beach cities. In a few cases the number of sales in a zip code exceeded that of December 2005, but since average prices for so many areas are down substantially, the total $$$ transacted remains down over last year. Some of the "affordable" areas, of course, remain strong. The pickup in sales appears to be extending into January, at least into these first few days of the month.
Of the beach cities, Hermosa Beach 90254 remains in the deepest slump, with dollar volume down over 50% on the moving average of the YOY dollar volume measure. Manhattan Beach 90266 chart lines remain pointed down, with YOY on the moving average down over 24%. Redondo Beach 90277 is down nearly 24% YOY on the moving average, but continues to rebound from the record -40% low from around July. Redondo 90278 is down over 31%, mildly recovering from a deeper -35% from around October. El Segundo 90245 has been the most resilient of the beach cities, but YOY finally fell below 0% in November and the signs are that the dollar volume there will continue its downward trend. The westside continues overall to remain in its slump.
Although there has been a good sales volume rebound in some places, the fact remains that there is a hangover of many many unsold homes from 2006. In addition there will be new inventory coming on the market for 2007. I expect it to start trickling into listings toward the end of January. Unless Los Angeles homeowners decide to stay put in 2007 and universally agree to not sell their homes, something I don't see as likely at all, there isn't any way any little blip in sales we see now is going to absorb that hangover. January might see some continuing rebound, but then after that I expect prospective sellers to start thawing out and coming out of the woodwork.
Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Torrance combined continues to decline at the same rate as in November. Inglewood/Lennox combined is softening, from over 29% YOY in November to over 20% in December. In Santa Monica combined, dollar volume has recovered mildly from -55% YOY in November to -45% now. Parts of South Central and the more affordable areas of Los Angeles continue to show positive numbers. Carson 90746 continues to do very well.
Here are December's YOY numbers. Click here for November's YOY numbers for comparison. Real estate on steroids (realtors fat and happy):
90305 126.1% Inglewood 90746 30.4% Carson 90301-90305 20.3% Inglewood/Lennox combinedDoing very well:
90303 14.4% Inglewood 90302 11.1% Inglewood 90037 8.7% South Central 90044 6.3% AthensNobody's hanging in there! Slip sliding away:
90047 -1.8% South Central 90260 -2.6% Lawndale 90249 -6.4% Gardena 90250 -6.4% Hawthorne 90062 -7.9% South Central 90502 -8.3% Torrance 90066 -10.8% Mar Vista 90043 -10.9% Hyde Park, Windsor HillsLosing a grip:
90301 -13.1% Inglewood 90007 -14.6% South Central 90304 -17.3% Lennox 90016 -17.7% West Adams 90045 -18.2% Westchester 90232 -18.6% Culver City 90744 -19.0% Wilmington 90245 -19.0% El Segundo 90501 -20.0% Torrance 90008 -23.1% Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park 90230 -23.3% Culver City 90277 -23.8% Redondo Beach (south) 90266 -24.1% Manhattan Beach 90504 -25.0% TorranceAbout to go over a cliff (realtors getting hungry):
90035 -25.3% West Fairfax 90018 -25.5% Jefferson Park 90501-90505 -27.7% Torrance Combined 90277-90278 -28.4% Redondo Beach combined 90056 -29.5% Ladera Heights 90732 -29.6% San Pedro/Rancho PV 90717 -29.7% Lomita beach cities -30.3% 4 Beach Cities combined 90278 -31.3% Redondo Beach (north) 90019 -32.6% Country Club Park/Mid City 90275 -33.0% Palos Verdes Estates 90293 -36.4% Playa del Rey 90505 -36.6% Torrance 90503 -38.1% Torrance 90292 -41.2% Marina del Rey 90064 -42.0% Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90745 -42.7% Carson 90034 -43.5% Palms 90036 -43.8% Park La Brea 90401-90405 -45.1% Santa Monica combined 90291 -45.9% VeniceSliding down a cliff (realtors really hungry)!
90254 -50.2% Hermosa Beach 90094 -64.8% Playa Vista
If you are new to this blog, please visit the Beartopia regional tracker for an explanation of these numbers. This is not price data! The regional tracker shows real estate transaction dollar volume for most zip codes west of the 110 freeway and south of the 10 freeway. Our Google map tool shows where these zip codes are on a map.
posted by bearmaster at 4:15 AM
4 Comments:
Just this Friday alone, I spotted five new listings in the Zip Realty Redondo inventory. Inventory seems to be starting a trend back up.
I could be wrong about "late" January for inventory to really flood the market, it could be happening a bit sooner. Maybe all that pentup "leash" aggression, LOL.
Bearmaster,
I'm suspecting a disconnect between zipreality and actual listings this year. Why? There were just too many open houses on 1/6/07. My fiancee and I were able to walk in 5 in under an hour.
We'll probably be at record inventory by end of February. The inventory flood has already started.
And a little birdie told me about a few hundred more engineers (not my company) being offered voluntary relocation to Colorado. Demand to move out of state exceeds the number of job slots going...
2007 will be interesting.
Neil
Hi Neil,
I think Zip Realty is already showing the flood, but the difference is that Zip Realty calls the entries "new" listings whereas from our viewpoint this is just a previous would-be seller re-re listing.
Right now Zip Realty shows 34 "new" listings since 1/1 and 40 "new" listings since Christmas. It shows only 2 price reductions since Christmas.
My database shows only 14 more genuinely new listings since 1/1 and 17 new listings since Christmas. It shows 12 price adjustments since Christmas.
It's doubtful that it matters which column the listing falls in, whether it's new or a relisting, the pressure to sell has been building up like water behind the Johnstown Dam. Out of my database of 583 entries only 43 have matched sales. Even if the finalized December sales were to magically double that, that still accounts for less than 15% of 583 properties.
By the way, I think there is still a ton of complacence or arrogance out there. Some of the price adjustments I've seen in Zip Realty are actuall price INCREASES, if you can believe it.
Yes, spring will be interesting. Grab some popcorn, sit back and watch this drama unfold.
My database shows only 14 more genuinely new listings since 1/1 and 17 new listings since Christmas. It shows 12 price adjustments since Christmas.
Oops, this was misleading. My own DB shows only 14 (now 15) seemingly new listings, not 14 more than Zip Realty.
Total number of SFR and condo properties in my Redondo Beach DB for which I have no sales record is now 541. Personally I think this market is in a chaotic state of flux and few in the industry are willing to acknowledge it as such.
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