Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Other measures of Beach Cities market activity, November 2006

According to Shorewood's December 19 report, the median sale price in Shorewood's 18-city survey area fell 4.5% YOY in November, from $599,000 to $572,000. They note that prices in the "affordable areas" are actually rising. By now we know what that means!

The median price in the beach cities fell 11.4% YOY in November, from $925,000 to $819,000.

The report states that Palos Verdes Estates median price is up 39.3% YOY. I question that number. Maybe they are getting it from new construction, because according to DQ News Palos Verdes didn't do anything like that. Guess I better ask Shorewood:

Zip       # SFR   Median   %Chg   # Condo  Median    %Chg 
          Sales   $SFR      YOY    Sales   $Condo     YOY
90274        21   $1,445    9.1%       8   $327      -38.2%       
90275        35     $958  -20.4%       3   $500      -36.7%

Cities that were up include Lawndale at 20.7%. Number of homes sold increased in Inglewood and Hawthorne.

Months of inventory based on closed sales is 4.7, up from 2.4 in November 2005. That's about double the inventory YOY.

The one price category in which sales volume exceeded November 2005 was the $500,000-$749,999 category. The $1 mil-$1.5 mil category is roughly the same, but sales at and above $1.5 mil are down substantially. I do not expect the high end market to retain its value in this area, though for now that market appears to be hanging on, pricewise.

Shorewood reports average DOM for the beach cities at 60, actual sales at 143, and inventory at 667. DOM appears to be rising, while I-S/S has declined. This was expected, since we expect inventories to dip at this time of year.


Blogger Chris said...

I've been tracking Manhattan Beach open houses (as advertised in the Beach Reporter) for about a year now and just for the heck of it checked this morning not expecting to see any. The small surprise was that there are 3 open houses this weekend. The more interesting surprise was one of the ads stated "Includes new BMW...". True story.

BTW, my very close realtor friend told me that there are quite a few listings teetering on repo in our area and they expect prices will fall much more than anyone is prepared to say in print. I asked 20%, 30% or more? They shrugged and said "who knows, the last crash was 40-45 percent or more depending on price range and most fundamentals are in worse shape now. The biggest factors keeping things semi-together are creative financing and moderate interst rates". Sounds a little scary.

7:01 AM, December 21, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Yes, scary!

I've been waiting for this to cave in for many many years now. I actually started collecting material for this blog in late 2001, but didn't start blogging until a year ago. (Gee, I've hit the one year anniversary!)

NAR has been repeating the mantra "All real estate is local!" Well, when all our "local" markets cave in, will they then start saying "It's property-specific!" ?

7:54 AM, December 21, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

By the way, Shorewood didn't really have any definitive reason for the discrepancy between their Trendgrafix data and the Dataquick data in regards to Palos Verdes. It could be the paucity of sales skewing results. Or a few high end sales skewing results. It could be new construction. It could be lots of things.

8:26 AM, December 21, 2006  

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