Just an observation on 3391 Swetham and pricing
I've been watching this property since the beginning of the year. To the best of my knowledge, it was listed early this year at $889,000. Since then, I've seen this property relisted a few times, with the asking price gradually inching down to $819,000 (I may have missed a few steps here), then $806,000, and then finally this morning, to $798,000.
That's just barely over 10%. For the most part, sellers here are still extremely reluctant to cut their asking prices. I sense they believe the market will come roaring back this autumn. There are a few other properties here in 90278 with asking prices cut from original asking prices way way back, somewhere between 10% and 16%. There are lots of listed properties with a token 3% to 5% knocked off the original asking price, and that seems to be happening rather quickly now (in days), as opposed to sales seasons of prior years, when that 3 to 5% came off if the property ended up sitting a few months. There isn't any sign of "drama pricing" here yet.
It will be interesting to see what the autumn sales season brings.
Note: This photo was taken early this year.
posted by bearmaster at 11:25 AM
4 Comments:
i'm thinking more like 10-20% over the next 2-3 years
RVD, your observations are always welcome. But man, I'm starting to feel like the meanest, baddest, Biggest Grizzly of them all! ;)
Once upon a time (in 2001 and 2002, to be exact) I embarked on an insane project in which I tried scraping out of Domania old data for 90278 from the late 1980's on out. I still have those files sitting someplace.
Someday when I have a few days to kill I ought to revisit those old files and see if I can come up with a ballpark number as to how far prices fell from 1989-1996. I think it was more than 10-20% and it took a good six years to shake out and hit bottom in 1995-1996. But I'd have to check.
My recollection is that "lot value" (tear-down) houses north of Montana in Santa Monica fell around one-third in the 1990s -- from over $900K at the last peak to around $600K in 1993, then down into the $500Ks after the earthquake in 1994.
It's time to call asking prices by their true label; wishing prices. This example shows exactly why. It just does not matter what the seller asks, all that counts is the sales price.
I keep on coming across descriptions on Zip like "huge price reduction!!!", or "prices slashed"...however, when you apply simple arithmetic (and look at the original asking price) its normally between a 2% - 5% cut.
Then, looking at the last sale price and the Tax Assessed Value (where the house has sold in the last 10 years) you normaly see prices at a quarter of what they're asking now - inlcuding the "Huge price cut"!
Some of these places have been on the market for months - one place I'm looking at is almost at its anniversary - and many others are at 180+ days.
Surely, they must be hurting by now?
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