Friday, August 18, 2006

Just an observation on 3391 Swetham and pricing

I've been watching this property since the beginning of the year. To the best of my knowledge, it was listed early this year at $889,000. Since then, I've seen this property relisted a few times, with the asking price gradually inching down to $819,000 (I may have missed a few steps here), then $806,000, and then finally this morning, to $798,000.

That's just barely over 10%. For the most part, sellers here are still extremely reluctant to cut their asking prices. I sense they believe the market will come roaring back this autumn. There are a few other properties here in 90278 with asking prices cut from original asking prices way way back, somewhere between 10% and 16%. There are lots of listed properties with a token 3% to 5% knocked off the original asking price, and that seems to be happening rather quickly now (in days), as opposed to sales seasons of prior years, when that 3 to 5% came off if the property ended up sitting a few months. There isn't any sign of "drama pricing" here yet.

It will be interesting to see what the autumn sales season brings.

Note: This photo was taken early this year.


Blogger RVD said...

i'm in 90277. they're still doing a lot of building on my street. a house across the street was purchased for $900k, demolished, and 2 new townhomes made. they went on the market last month for 1.295M but they just lowered it $100k. my guess is that the townhomes will sell for around 1.1M.

the house next door to that also sold for $900k and they just demolished it so it's a big dirt lot now. i'm sure they'll be doing the same thing.

prices are falling but the question is how much? some bears think 50%...i'm thinking more like 10-20% over the next 2-3 years. the past year has been slow but houses around here look to me like they're still getting good money (like the same as they were a year ago)'s just taking longer to sell.

anyway, that's my 2 cents.

12:08 PM, August 18, 2006  
Blogger bearmaster said...

i'm thinking more like 10-20% over the next 2-3 years

RVD, your observations are always welcome. But man, I'm starting to feel like the meanest, baddest, Biggest Grizzly of them all! ;)

Once upon a time (in 2001 and 2002, to be exact) I embarked on an insane project in which I tried scraping out of Domania old data for 90278 from the late 1980's on out. I still have those files sitting someplace.

Someday when I have a few days to kill I ought to revisit those old files and see if I can come up with a ballpark number as to how far prices fell from 1989-1996. I think it was more than 10-20% and it took a good six years to shake out and hit bottom in 1995-1996. But I'd have to check.

1:13 PM, August 18, 2006  
Blogger RVD said...

i certainly hope prices will fall 50% (or more). i own my place right now but want to move to a bigger, nicer place.

if i can sell my place now for $600k (1/2 what it would probably sell for now) and buy a new place for $1M (what is currently $2M in manhattan beach), i'll be a happy guy.

i just don't see it happening...but i can always wish.


2:03 PM, August 18, 2006  
Blogger Darrell said...

My recollection is that "lot value" (tear-down) houses north of Montana in Santa Monica fell around one-third in the 1990s -- from over $900K at the last peak to around $600K in 1993, then down into the $500Ks after the earthquake in 1994.

6:25 PM, August 18, 2006  
Blogger Rob Dawg said...

It's time to call asking prices by their true label; wishing prices. This example shows exactly why. It just does not matter what the seller asks, all that counts is the sales price.

3:47 AM, August 19, 2006  
Blogger speedingpullet said...

I keep on coming across descriptions on Zip like "huge price reduction!!!", or "prices slashed"...however, when you apply simple arithmetic (and look at the original asking price) its normally between a 2% - 5% cut.

Then, looking at the last sale price and the Tax Assessed Value (where the house has sold in the last 10 years) you normaly see prices at a quarter of what they're asking now - inlcuding the "Huge price cut"!

Some of these places have been on the market for months - one place I'm looking at is almost at its anniversary - and many others are at 180+ days.

Surely, they must be hurting by now?

9:21 AM, August 19, 2006  

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