DQNews South Bay Resale Activity for May 2006
According to DQ News, the May Monthly resale activity for the south bay area showed the following:
Zip # SFR Median %Chg # Condo Median %Chg
Sales $SFR YOY Sales $Condo YOY
90045 40 837,000 11.6 7 450,000 8.7
90245 9 794,000 -6.6 4 530,000 -8.9
90254 10 1,571,000 19.7 10 1,130,000 45.9
90260 15 535,000 21.7 5 307,000 -19.2
90266 24 1,202,000 -19.6 5 1,064,000 -8.3
90277 16 873,000 -16.7 20 730,000 13.2
90278 28 800,000 10.7 38 684,000 -2.7
For the charts below, I tried taking the YOY change in a doubly smooth 3 month moving average of the median SFR prices of each of the beach cities to see if anything interesting shows up. The results are mixed. Overall, price momentum has slowed this year, but for some zip codes the trend is currently flat, for some the trend has just turned up slightly, and for some the trend is currently drifting down, meaning that a trend toward an overall longer term price decline in median prices is not here yet. Since these are sales of existing SFRs, I don't think the resiliency of prices here can be blamed on the upward bias of new construction. The bubble is hanging in there, at least through May 2006.
Note: the charts have a slight insignificant inaccuracy because I do not have available the median price data 3 months prior to June 2003 for calculating moving averages.
posted by bearmaster at 9:14 PM
1 Comments:
Yes, obviously this area has held up well and will be among the last places to unwind the bubble. So it could be 3 months to as long as another year before we really see the evidence (declining YOY median prices, on top of the already existing fewer sales and longer DOMs that we see now) that this area is suffering the same problems as San Diego, or Sacramento, or even Arizona or Florida.
The real estate and economic talking heads still keep insisting a crash is not expected, just a return to a normal market. Is this the equivalent to the 1929 platitude by Irving Fisher that "stocks have reached a permanently high plateau" shortly before they went over a cliff?
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