Los Angeles County South Bay Beach Cities Real Estate $$$ Transacted for February 2008
I have it on good authority from a client who works for mortgages at Wells Fargo that loan applications have been picking up since January - they have been "real busy" at her work. Both new applications and refis have been picking up, and my client and her husband may themselves take the opportunity to refi their own mortgage to take advantage of the coming higher conforming loan limit.
What sounds dicey at the moment is what that conforming loan limit will be. A February 22 L.A. Times story by Kathy M. Kristoff called "Jumbo rates still in the air" explains that although the stimulus package can boost conforming loan limits to as high as $729,500 in some areas, ultimately Congress left it up to HUD to determine what the conforming loan limit is going to be on a county by county basis. The stimulus plan was signed February 13 and HUD has 30 days from then to determine the new loan limits. The story speculates that HUD may boost the limit for Los Angeles from $417,000 to something like $572,000 and possibly $650,000 for Orange County.
When I first heard the $729,500 being tossed around, it made me think that a heck of a lot of properties for sale in Redondo could squeeze in under that number (note the recent price cuts to the new Ruxton Lane development, for instance). But under a limit of around $572,000, I'm not so sure.
What does seem pretty certain though is that there are sales waiting on credit market rules being finalized. How many of those loans will give a bong hit to Redondo Beach remains unclear.
Anyway, on to the charts. I think they almost speak for themselves. For the beach cities, dollar volume is up substantially YOY in 90245 (El Segundo) and 90254 (Hermosa Beach), and down substantially in 90266 (Manhattan Beach) and Redondo Beach (90277 and 90278). The down areas far outweigh the up areas.
Just to let you know, I do occasionally find errors on charts and fix them up without saying anything. 90274 YOY looks a little saner now. There was a data shift in the area charts that is now fixed. I've added zip code 90731 (San Pedro). Last month I fixed an error in Santa Monica. Etc, etc. However, no errors have really affected the direction of the trend, which has been down.
You can view a particular zip code through my regional tracker, and also my Google map tool.
YOY Comparisons
These numbers are a YOY comparison of the doubly smooth moving average of dollar volume charts. I think of them as "recent pain" (or recent gain) indicators.
Property sales and their realtors still on steroids... 90094 184.9% Playa Vista Doing OK 90064 7.4% Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90501 3.3% Torrance "I fell down down down in a burning ring of fire..." 90293 -7.8% Playa del Rey 90254 -8.5% Hermosa Beach 90245 -9.9% El Segundo 90045 -13.9% Westchester 90291 -21.5% Venice 90401-90405 -26.2% Santa Monica combined 90292 -26.5% Marina del Rey 90232 -28.8% Culver City 90036 -29.1% Park La Brea 90266 -31.8% Manhattan Beach beach cities -32.5% 4 Beach Cities combined 90066 -37.6% Mar Vista 90504 -38.1% Torrance 90505 -38.3% Torrance 90034 -38.9% Palms 90501-90505 -39.8% Torrance Combined 90717 -40.7% Lomita 90008 -41.1% Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park 90277 -42.8% Redondo Beach (south) 90277-90278 -43.2% Redondo Beach combined 90275 -43.2% Palos Verdes Estates 90278 -43.6% Redondo Beach (north) SW county -44.3% Southwest L.A. County 90732 -47.6% San Pedro/Rancho PV 90056 -52.7% Ladera Heights 90230 -53.9% Culver City 90301 -54.7% Inglewood 90019 -55.0% Country Club Park/Mid City 90007 -55.8% South Central 90043 -57.5% Hyde Park, Windsor Hills 90503 -57.7% Torrance 90035 -60.3% West Fairfax 90746 -61.0% Carson 90016 -61.5% West Adams 90250 -64.5% Hawthorne 90304 -65.3% Lennox 90018 -65.8% Jefferson Park 90731 -66.6% San Pedro 90260 -67.3% Lawndale 90247 -67.9% Gardena 90047 -68.2% South Central 90062 -68.3% South Central 90302 -69.1% Inglewood 90301-90305 -71.2% Inglewood/Lennox combined 90745 -71.3% Carson 90044 -71.5% Athens 90249 -73.1% Gardena 90502 -74.5% Torrance 90037 -79.6% South Central 90305 -80.2% Inglewood 90303 -80.4% Inglewood 90744 -239.3% Wilmington
Relative Strength
This is a longer-term view of the strength of dollar volume in a given zip code. For this month 5.1 is the strongest (suffering the least amount of chronic pain) and -0.9 being the weakest (suffering the most chronic pain). Think of it is as the area above 0 on the YOY graph with the area below 0 of the YOY graph subtracted out.
90094 5.1 Playa Vista 90247 3.2 Gardena 90305 2.8 Inglewood 90044 1.8 Athens 90034 1.7 Palms 90746 1.5 Carson 90292 1.1 Marina del Rey 90047 1.1 South Central 90062 1.0 South Central 90301-90305 1.0 Inglewood/Lennox combined 90304 1.0 Lennox 90007 0.9 South Central 90502 0.9 Torrance 90018 0.9 Jefferson Park 90745 0.8 Carson 90301 0.8 Inglewood 90016 0.8 West Adams 90303 0.8 Inglewood 90250 0.8 Hawthorne 90302 0.8 Inglewood 90293 0.7 Playa del Rey 90501 0.7 Torrance 90732 0.7 San Pedro/Rancho PV 90037 0.6 South Central 90043 0.6 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills 90019 0.6 Country Club Park/Mid City 90064 0.6 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90008 0.6 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park 90254 0.5 Hermosa Beach 90291 0.5 Venice 90503 0.5 Torrance 90230 0.5 Culver City 90249 0.5 Gardena 90045 0.5 Westchester 90036 0.4 Park La Brea SW county 0.4 Southwest L.A. County 90260 0.4 Lawndale 90501-90505 0.4 Torrance Combined 90245 0.3 El Segundo 90278 0.3 Redondo Beach (north) 90731 0.3 San Pedro 90232 0.3 Culver City 90066 0.3 Mar Vista 90277-90278 0.2 Redondo Beach combined 90401-90405 0.2 Santa Monica combined 90505 0.2 Torrance beach cities 0.2 4 Beach Cities combined 90035 0.2 West Fairfax 90266 0.2 Manhattan Beach 90056 0.2 Ladera Heights 90717 0.1 Lomita 90277 0.1 Redondo Beach (south) 90504 0.1 Torrance 90275 0.0 Palos Verdes Estates 90744 -0.9 Wilmington
posted by bearmaster at 10:30 PM
3 Comments:
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New Redondo Beach listings came online in February at the rate of 2.75 a day.
For February 2007 I show nearly 3.9 a day, but given that my database was still pretty new, I was probably picking up a lot of stuff that had already been listed and was being relisted.
With such evident sales collapse across the region, I'd be interested in knowing how realtors have survived the downturn - by second job (what sort of job?), moving out of the area, etc.
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