Friday, February 08, 2008

Preliminary look at January 2008 Redondo Beach sales

I am still scraping sale data out of the Manhattan Beach Reporter. I have pretty much given up on Zillow. (On a side note, I've been in touch with Zip Realty, telling them the problems I've had getting home sale data out of Zillow and Domania - who knows, maybe they will implement something!) MBR does not give exact sale dates so my estimates continue to fall on the first day of the reporting period.

I don't have enough records here for real statistical validity, so just keep in mind I'm doing the best I can with what I've got. The table below is my ongoing saga of estimates based on my SUPPLY (inventory) records:

STAT     JUL 2007   AUG 2007   SEP 2007   OCT 2007  NOV  2007   DEC 2007   JAN 2008  
records        78         51         68         44         37         26         25
MEDIAN   $860,000   $850,000   $857,000   $755,000   $832,500   $782,500   $795,000   
AVERAGE  $880,279   $867,925   $935,506   $770,416   $933,956   $832,827   $932,117
MIN      $359,000   $365,000   $369,900   $369,900   $379,000   $486,500   $449,900
MAX    $2,299,000 $1,510,000 $2,400,000 $2,560,000 $2,500,000 $1,500,000 $2,130,000

For January 2007, my calculated figures ran for 48 records, median = $724,500, average = $762,005, min = $389,000, and max = $2,100,000. So by my guesstimates median price is still up 10% YOY.

Of course, in a market where sales have been drying up faster than ice chips on black tar on a 100 degree day, who knows what "median" really means any more!

There's nothing unusual or different about sales by square footage. Median sqft has roamed around in the 1700-1900 sqft range, with averages maybe up to 200 feet higher.

Median DOM is 107 days - time on market roughly 3.6 months. Average DOM is 140 days, roughly 4.6 months.

Percent Reduction from original asking price (PCTRED) continues to creep up. If my sale records are totally correct, a few properties sold for a bit MORE than their original asking price, but overall, median reduction is 9.5% and average reduction is 7.7%.

Remember, we have to take these numbers in the overall context in which they occur. A rising percent reduction in asking price does not really indicate by itself that sale prices have fallen if homesellers are still looking for the dream prices of 2005 and 2006. And of course, a rising median price just gives homeowners a psychological "mark to model" gimmick by which they can continue to value their homes and pretend that their properties are still increasing in value, when the reality is that this theoretical rise is happening on terribly low volume.


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