Friday, December 21, 2007

L.A. Times: More flee state than move in

I did not blog this AP story from a year ago, so I will summarize it here. According to California's Department of Finance, in 2006, for the first time in a decade, the number of residents leaving the state exceeded the number of those moving here. Those exiting the state are heading to places like Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Washington, and Oregon. (I don't think this accounts for births and new immigrants, in terms of total population figures - only residents who come from other states and residents who leave.)

Now the L.A. Times, in this December 20 story by Sharon Bernstein and Paloma Esquivel, is noting the continuance of this trend. According to the SFGate story, the net loss in 2006 was 29,000. According to this current story, the net loss in 2007 runs around 89,000. (I hope I am comparing apples to apples!) This year, only 5,800 jobs a month have been created, compared to over 20,000 a month the prior year. Jobs have been lost in finance, construction, housing, and other sectors, and some indicators like number of cars sold is down.

Remember, California, and the Los Angeles area, are the places that last year the experts touted as being likely to survive any housing downturn due to its diverse economy. Now, will this exodus trend pull the rug out further from California housing markets?

The story notes the similarity in the exodus to that of the 1990's, but the experts are still saying it won't be as bad because the economic problems and "image" problems aren't as extreme. Like the governator who recently stated the crisis "won't last", the experts, too, are claiming this won't linger like the problems of the 1990's.

These are the same people who were brimming with optimism and assured us that things would be fine this year. I have no reason to be believe their assurances now will be any more accurate.

Be sure to check out the story, and take a look at the interactive graphic on migration trends!

Also check the related December 21 story by My-Thuan Tran, Flocking from So Cal to Houston.


Blogger bearmaster said...

I don't think I'm doing the comparisons to 2007 and 2006 correctly. If you look at the domestic migration figures in the interactive graphic they don't come anywhere near the figures I extracted from SFGate and the first LA Times story.

Gotta be careful when I discuss migration to/from the state.

9:18 AM, December 21, 2007  

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