Thursday, September 06, 2007

Preliminary look at August Redondo Beach home sales

I have listed preliminary statistics for August based on a sample size of 51 sale records.

The preliminary numbers for August are inserted below.

STAT     FEB 2007   MAR 2007   APR 2007   MAY 2007   JUN 2007   JUL 2007   AUG 2007       
records        64        105        114         91         62         78         51
MEDIAN   $745,358   $755,000   $799,000   $777,000   $764,500   $860,000   $850,000
AVERAGE  $787,799   $813,252   $884,271   $855,228   $830,711   $880,279   $867,925
MIN      $387,500   $370,000   $470,000   $453,000   $485,000   $359,000   $365,000  
MAX    $1,878,000 $2,027,000 $1,750,000 $1,640,000 $1,565,000 $2,299,000 $1,510,000 

Notice that the median and average prices are very much in line with what was recorded for July, which was a big spike up in prices. Also, as you can see in the chart below, median square feet, which had been hovering in the 1700-1800 sqft range, now has moved up to 1990. These numbers are coming from sale records, which if anything would tend to understate square footage if there are errors.

My interpretation is that the bottom has fallen out of the lower-end range in terms of mortgage financing, which would make a disproportionately larger share of whatever homes sales there are come out of the high-end range, driving up the median price and the median square feet.

If Fannie Mae ends up promising to buy the mortgages for these lower-end homes (it's weird thinking of anything below $800K as "low end"), this lopsidedness in the market could end up being temporary. Stay tuned.


Blogger beebs said...

I think it is improbable that the FHA limit will be raised to bail out CA.

We just have to get used to new reality in mortgage markets.

20% down comes to mind.


7:13 PM, September 06, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

For lower end homes, prices are clearly at levels from 2 years ago. They seem to be stagnating there.

We have just now barely reached a point of recognition that this market is different now. The market has segregated, the credit bubble has warped things beyond belief and any real downturn is getting drawn out. The magnitude of the problem is light years from what we experienced in the early 90's.

Local realtors still convey that because this area is so desirable, it will be immune to any ugliness. Many sellers are still dinking around slivering off $5K or $10K at a time off their asking prices. Still too many players in la-la land.

I'd like to see 2/3 to 4/5 off this market myself - though I may not be here long enough to see that happen, if it were to happen.

8:04 PM, September 06, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...


I'm a little surprised that the jumbo loan issues haven't hit the south bay harder.

Hey, what's that with "I may not be here long enough to see that happen, if it were to happen." Did I miss a post on relocation?

Got popcorn?

10:37 AM, September 07, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Neil, you haven't missed anything. I was really commenting on the fact that this housing correction is orders of magnitude larger than the one in the early 90's, so arguably it could take much longer to play out.

On a personal note, our landlady told me yesterday she's having an appraiser come and look at the apartment building Monday. So she must be thinking of selling, and if that's true, we may have to move.

Bruce is resisting the idea, since we live in such a lovely convenient place. We've been here 4 years. We lived literally across the street in another apartment building for the the 8 years prior to that.

We simply aren't going to be able to find anything else around here that's equivalent. We've been very very lucky for 12 years.

Even though he's resistant, we'll be starting to go through our stuff and throwing out or getting rid of things, in case the worst happens.

10:54 AM, September 07, 2007  

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