Thursday, March 08, 2007

Real Estate $$$ Transacted through February 2007

Well I waited.

The overall numbers were looking pretty dismal for the zip codes I reported on, the last time Melissa Data was updated, so I figured that there was still some outstanding data for February. It is now March 8, and there are still no updates. Did February really suck as bad as it appears to have?

Of the zip codes I chart, the ones in which sales volume met or exceeded February 2006 sales volume are: 90008, 90034, 90045, 90066, 90249, 90278, 90293, 90504, and 90505. Only in 90250 and 90064 can one claim that sales volume majorly exceeded February 2006 volume. Browse through the charts of the remaining zip codes and you will see some big plunges.

Are the implosions of sub-prime lenders already affecting the housing market? Are escrows being hung up or falling through? I don't know how much the sub-prime market affects the beach cities in particular, but I can only imagine it might have some effect on the "affordable" areas that the L.A. Times has claimed were the "bright spots" in the Los Angeles housing market.

It's getting hard to publish the YOY rankings here because so many of them are now in negative territory. This month, I am introducing an additional measure, which is the second number you see on each row. It is my crude way of measuring the area on the YOY charts. I simply take the cumulative percentage. In some ways I think it is better than the YOY measure because there is more history built in to it. The lower the number, the more pain a zip code has been feeling in terms of dollar volume drying up. The higher the number, the less pain that zip code feels. For February, the minimum was 0.1, and the max was 4.5 (Playa Vista).

90305        38.5%  3.6 Inglewood
90249         8.1%  1.0 Gardena
90250         2.8%  1.1 Hawthorne
90303        -0.3%  1.4 Inglewood
90047        -2.6%  1.6 South Central
90746        -2.7%  2.1 Carson
90301-90305  -6.7%  1.7 Inglewood/Lennox combined
90044        -7.0%  2.3 Athens
90502        -8.5%  1.6 Torrance
90066        -8.9%  0.4 Mar Vista
90302        -9.1%  1.5 Inglewood
90045        -9.5%  0.5 Westchester
90062        -9.9%  1.6 South Central
90037       -10.3%  1.3 South Central
90275       -14.8%  0.1 Palos Verdes Estates
90035       -15.0%  0.6 West Fairfax
90503       -15.8%  0.6 Torrance
90064       -18.5%  0.3 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills
90043       -19.0%  1.1 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills
90293       -19.0%  0.6 Playa del Rey
90230       -19.7%  0.8 Culver City
90501-90505 -19.7%  0.7 Torrance Combined
90278       -19.8%  0.4 Redondo Beach (north)
90501       -20.6%  0.9 Torrance
90277-90278 -20.8%  0.3 Redondo Beach combined
90277       -21.9%  0.1 Redondo Beach (south)
90016       -22.2%  1.3 West Adams
90504       -22.3%  0.5 Torrance
90019       -22.9%  1.0 Country Club Park/Mid City
90056       -23.4%  0.7 Ladera Heights
90732       -24.7%  0.8 San Pedro/Rancho PV
90260       -25.6%  1.0 Lawndale
90291       -25.8%  0.6 Venice
90301       -25.9%  1.4 Inglewood
90266       -26.4%  0.3 Manhattan Beach
90401-90405 -26.5%  0.4 Santa Monica combined
90008       -26.6%  0.9 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park
beach cities-27.3%  0.3 4 Beach Cities combined
90018       -29.5%  1.5 Jefferson Park
90505       -29.7%  0.4 Torrance
90717       -32.4%  0.5 Lomita
90036       -33.7%  0.6 Park La Brea
90245       -34.7%  0.7 El Segundo
90292       -39.2%  1.8 Marina del Rey
90304       -40.3%  1.4 Lennox
90254       -42.1%  0.4 Hermosa Beach
90007       -44.8%  1.4 South Central
90232       -44.9%  0.7 Culver City
90745       -46.0%  1.4 Carson
90034       -47.1%  2.0 Palms
90094       -52.6%  4.5 Playa Vista
90744       -55.0%  0.9 Wilmington


Blogger bearmaster said...

90250 is probably doing decently because of Fusion at South Bay. 90064 was probably due for rebound of some sort anyway.

8:18 PM, March 08, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...


Thank you for these charts! I do wait for them. :)

Little favor, so that the charts have a fixed axis in the future, could you reset the dollar values transacted to the lower Y-axis at zero? Its pretty obvious that the charts are headed down.

Now March will be curious. Traditionally February is the low for the year, but with mortgage tightening, will it be? Will March be the 50% higher sales of prior years? Or will mortgage tightening make things worse.

Oh, national inventory broke 1 million! 18 days early. :) I blogged it, of course. We're in uncharted territory...

Can you explain your "cumulative percentage" a little more?

Got popcorn?

10:42 AM, March 09, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

My experimental cumulative percentage just does a running total of the percentage down or up YOY, divided by 1000. Most of these zip codes start YOY calculations January 2003, so a cumulative absolute value is rather meaningless, but when compared to other zip codes during the same month at least tells you how one zip code has fared against another historically, through that same month.

Someplace like Carson 90745 (whose chart I don't publish) is down -46% YOY, but that historical cumulative percentage is currently running at 1.4, within the range 0.1-4.5. Zip codes running above 1.0 are looking relatively healthy compared to zip codes below 1.0. Since Carson is running above 1.0 that suggests that the negative YOY number is relatively recent, and it is. The trendline crossed 0 just last October, whereas if you look at the trendline for the beach cities it crossed the trendline between February and March last year so there has been more chronic pain. Gee, is it time for another birthday cake of some sort?

Of course I would prefer a way to measure the area of the YOY line above 0 and subtract out the area below 0 for the best measure, but I don't have the time to figure that out much less program it in to all the charts.

Next time I will try to publish the rankings sorted by the cumulative percentage in addition to the YOY sorting, I just didn't have a lot of time this month to work on this. I've been sick and I am working on taxes.

I'm seeing A LOT of strange sale data. A LOT of it. When I get these damn taxes done, I will post more on the February sales and the shape of inventory.

11:50 AM, March 09, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

BTW, Melissa Data posted the first numbers for March today. Redondo sales volume is opening pretty strong, as far as I can tell. Start of spring season.

1:18 PM, March 09, 2007  
Blogger wannabuy said...

Gee, is it time for another birthday cake of some sort?


Hopefully your in top health soon. As to taxes, yuck!

I'm seeing A LOT of strange sale data. A LOT of it. When I get these damn taxes done, I will post more on the February sales and the shape of inventory.

That I am VERY curious to see.

As to a strong spring... wouldn't the early March data be on last month's mortgage criteria? I think it will slow later in the month... but let's see. I'm patient.

Got popcorn?

4:33 PM, March 09, 2007  

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