Real Estate $$$ Transacted through February 2007
Well I waited.
The overall numbers were looking pretty dismal for the zip codes I reported on, the last time Melissa Data was updated, so I figured that there was still some outstanding data for February. It is now March 8, and there are still no updates. Did February really suck as bad as it appears to have?
Of the zip codes I chart, the ones in which sales volume met or exceeded February 2006 sales volume are: 90008, 90034, 90045, 90066, 90249, 90278, 90293, 90504, and 90505. Only in 90250 and 90064 can one claim that sales volume majorly exceeded February 2006 volume. Browse through the charts of the remaining zip codes and you will see some big plunges.
Are the implosions of sub-prime lenders already affecting the housing market? Are escrows being hung up or falling through? I don't know how much the sub-prime market affects the beach cities in particular, but I can only imagine it might have some effect on the "affordable" areas that the L.A. Times has claimed were the "bright spots" in the Los Angeles housing market.
It's getting hard to publish the YOY rankings here because so many of them are now in negative territory. This month, I am introducing an additional measure, which is the second number you see on each row. It is my crude way of measuring the area on the YOY charts. I simply take the cumulative percentage. In some ways I think it is better than the YOY measure because there is more history built in to it. The lower the number, the more pain a zip code has been feeling in terms of dollar volume drying up. The higher the number, the less pain that zip code feels. For February, the minimum was 0.1, and the max was 4.5 (Playa Vista).
90305 38.5% 3.6 Inglewood 90249 8.1% 1.0 Gardena 90250 2.8% 1.1 Hawthorne 90303 -0.3% 1.4 Inglewood 90047 -2.6% 1.6 South Central 90746 -2.7% 2.1 Carson 90301-90305 -6.7% 1.7 Inglewood/Lennox combined 90044 -7.0% 2.3 Athens 90502 -8.5% 1.6 Torrance 90066 -8.9% 0.4 Mar Vista 90302 -9.1% 1.5 Inglewood 90045 -9.5% 0.5 Westchester 90062 -9.9% 1.6 South Central 90037 -10.3% 1.3 South Central 90275 -14.8% 0.1 Palos Verdes Estates 90035 -15.0% 0.6 West Fairfax 90503 -15.8% 0.6 Torrance 90064 -18.5% 0.3 Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills 90043 -19.0% 1.1 Hyde Park, Windsor Hills 90293 -19.0% 0.6 Playa del Rey 90230 -19.7% 0.8 Culver City 90501-90505 -19.7% 0.7 Torrance Combined 90278 -19.8% 0.4 Redondo Beach (north) 90501 -20.6% 0.9 Torrance 90277-90278 -20.8% 0.3 Redondo Beach combined 90277 -21.9% 0.1 Redondo Beach (south) 90016 -22.2% 1.3 West Adams 90504 -22.3% 0.5 Torrance 90019 -22.9% 1.0 Country Club Park/Mid City 90056 -23.4% 0.7 Ladera Heights 90732 -24.7% 0.8 San Pedro/Rancho PV 90260 -25.6% 1.0 Lawndale 90291 -25.8% 0.6 Venice 90301 -25.9% 1.4 Inglewood 90266 -26.4% 0.3 Manhattan Beach 90401-90405 -26.5% 0.4 Santa Monica combined 90008 -26.6% 0.9 Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park beach cities-27.3% 0.3 4 Beach Cities combined 90018 -29.5% 1.5 Jefferson Park 90505 -29.7% 0.4 Torrance 90717 -32.4% 0.5 Lomita 90036 -33.7% 0.6 Park La Brea 90245 -34.7% 0.7 El Segundo 90292 -39.2% 1.8 Marina del Rey 90304 -40.3% 1.4 Lennox 90254 -42.1% 0.4 Hermosa Beach 90007 -44.8% 1.4 South Central 90232 -44.9% 0.7 Culver City 90745 -46.0% 1.4 Carson 90034 -47.1% 2.0 Palms 90094 -52.6% 4.5 Playa Vista 90744 -55.0% 0.9 Wilmington
posted by bearmaster at 7:35 PM
5 Comments:
90250 is probably doing decently because of Fusion at South Bay. 90064 was probably due for rebound of some sort anyway.
Bearmaster,
Thank you for these charts! I do wait for them. :)
Little favor, so that the charts have a fixed axis in the future, could you reset the dollar values transacted to the lower Y-axis at zero? Its pretty obvious that the charts are headed down.
Now March will be curious. Traditionally February is the low for the year, but with mortgage tightening, will it be? Will March be the 50% higher sales of prior years? Or will mortgage tightening make things worse.
Oh, national inventory broke 1 million! 18 days early. :) I blogged it, of course. We're in uncharted territory...
Can you explain your "cumulative percentage" a little more?
Got popcorn?
Neil
My experimental cumulative percentage just does a running total of the percentage down or up YOY, divided by 1000. Most of these zip codes start YOY calculations January 2003, so a cumulative absolute value is rather meaningless, but when compared to other zip codes during the same month at least tells you how one zip code has fared against another historically, through that same month.
Someplace like Carson 90745 (whose chart I don't publish) is down -46% YOY, but that historical cumulative percentage is currently running at 1.4, within the range 0.1-4.5. Zip codes running above 1.0 are looking relatively healthy compared to zip codes below 1.0. Since Carson is running above 1.0 that suggests that the negative YOY number is relatively recent, and it is. The trendline crossed 0 just last October, whereas if you look at the trendline for the beach cities it crossed the trendline between February and March last year so there has been more chronic pain. Gee, is it time for another birthday cake of some sort?
Of course I would prefer a way to measure the area of the YOY line above 0 and subtract out the area below 0 for the best measure, but I don't have the time to figure that out much less program it in to all the charts.
Next time I will try to publish the rankings sorted by the cumulative percentage in addition to the YOY sorting, I just didn't have a lot of time this month to work on this. I've been sick and I am working on taxes.
I'm seeing A LOT of strange sale data. A LOT of it. When I get these damn taxes done, I will post more on the February sales and the shape of inventory.
BTW, Melissa Data posted the first numbers for March today. Redondo sales volume is opening pretty strong, as far as I can tell. Start of spring season.
Gee, is it time for another birthday cake of some sort?
ROTFL
Hopefully your in top health soon. As to taxes, yuck!
I'm seeing A LOT of strange sale data. A LOT of it. When I get these damn taxes done, I will post more on the February sales and the shape of inventory.
That I am VERY curious to see.
As to a strong spring... wouldn't the early March data be on last month's mortgage criteria? I think it will slow later in the month... but let's see. I'm patient.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Post a Comment
<< Home