Monday, August 21, 2006

DQNews South Bay Resale Activity for July 2006

According to DQ News, the July Monthly resale activity for the south bay area showed the following:

Zip     # SFR   Median   %Chg   # Condo  Median    %Chg 
        Sales   $SFR      YOY    Sales   $Condo     YOY
90045    38     765,000  -0.5      2     497,000   32.7
90245     7     730,000 -15.0      2     519,000    0.7      
90254    11   1,085,000 -23.9     12     810,000   -1.8   
90260    19     530,000   1.9      5     385,000  -22.7
90266    34   1,570,000   9.2      7   1,373,000   13.2
90277    16     990,000  -6.9     19     734,000   17.0 
90278    17     737,000  -6.1     27     685,000   -6.7

The beach cities charts below look strictly at resale activity for existing SFRs. The pink line is the raw %YOY change in the median price. The dark blue line is the %YOY on a doubly smooth 3 month moving average of the median price. I like to take moving averages because seasonal activity does not always "match up" (e.g., sometimes Easter sales fall more in March, sometimes more in April.) Beach cities zip codes are 90245 (El Segundo), 90254 (Hermosa Beach), 90266 (Manhattan Beach), 90277 (south Redondo Beach), and 90278 (north Redondo Beach).

Price gain momentum is hitting the brakes. Notice that with the exception of 90266 (Manhattan Beach), all the pink lines are pointing down and are in negative territory. Median prices have declined YOY for July for four out of five beach city zip codes. But we'll give the bubble denialists the benefit of a doubt here and look at the values of the dark blue line. On that basis price gain momentum has slowed to low single digits for 90277, 90278, and 90254, is practically 0 for 90266, and is negative for 90245.

Note: Without actually reviewing old copies of the Los Angeles Times, I cannot verify the accuracy of this data. The early data will contain a slight inaccuracy since I do not have data prior to June 2003 to accurately calculate moving averages. Some of my raw YOY numbers do not match the YOY numbers shown in the DQNews data published at the L.A. Times, though the direction of trends match.


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