Saturday, March 22, 2008

CAR/DQNews February 2008 report for Redondo Beach

The following figures are from the California Association of Realtors (CAR) for February. CAR gets its figures from Dataquick. DataQuick overwrites that link every month, but here is the CAR link.

The median price for a Redondo Beach home (new or existing, SFR or condo) is now $650,000 down -12.67% YOY. For February, that is based on 47 sales, which is a decent number of records on which to calculate a statistic. Actually, this calculation is better than the zip code / property type breakdown calculation which DataQuick also reports, about mid-month. The former is an aggregation of new and existing home sales, SFRs and condos, in 90277 and 90278. The latter is relatively meaningless.

My preliminary calculation came in at $755,000, based on 25 records. I missed the mark.

Looking at the price history chart here, it is interesting to note that the price range seems to have fallen back into the 2004 area, which seems to be the point where the bubble really took off for its last big leg up.

Something does not add up here. DataQuick reports 60 sales for the beach cities, but when I add up Redondo, Hermosa, El Segundo, and Manhattan Beach, I come up with 84. This is the first time I've noticed this, and unfortunately I don't have convenient access to back data to check and see if this has been a consistent error. So I'll start putting these numbers in a table. In the meantime, I've sent off an email to DataQuick.

Area               Sales      Median Price       Year Ago      Pct Change
El Segundo            7         $540,000         $650,000         -16.92%
Hermosa Beach        15       $1,250,000         $959,000         +30.34%   
Manhattan Beach      15       $1,850,000       $1,839,500          +0.57%
Redondo Beach        47         $655,000         $750,000         -12.67%     
(they don't add up)
Beach Cities         60       $1,180,500         $963,500         +22.52%

For the South Bay area, DataQuick reports a median price of $600,000, down nearly -7% YOY, based on 252 sales.

The median home price in the Westside is $1,210,000, up +65.13% YOY, based on 35 sales. West Los Angeles median price was $752,000, up -0.92% YOY, based on 92 sales. Palos Verdes Estates recorded a median of $1,239,000, up +3.68% YOY, based on 13 sales, and Palos Verdes Peninsula area recorded a median price of $1,150,000, down -0.43%, based on 37 sales. Malibu is up +16.81% at $2,800,000, based on 11 sales, while Beverly Hills is up +18.10% to $1,925,000, based on 14 sales.

Overall, sales seem to have inched up slightly over January, and the affluent areas overall are holding up better, for now.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have some real confusion with Redondo Beach. First, I moved here from Southern Colorado in November of 1999. The housing market was on fire and continued unabated through 2007. I saw defense contractors expand and fill vacant buildings with jobs and other jobs created in the usual SOX legal and financial services arenas. The home prices from those that I have watched have increased from 8% to 14% year over year in a relentless manner. Scrapes increased density and a large growing city government seem to demand that this continue for things to stay in balance. I know there have been retrenchments in the South Bay mostly in my mind led by the defense cut backs of a past government administrations. I did buy a home and competed on price with so many couples and families in their early 30’s. It was clear family money was shoring up the down payment and I lost more than one prized trophy house to a set of piggyback loans. Mom and dad along with piggy back loans has made much of this possible but is mom and dad’s money safe invested in these homes? Is the Redondo Beach real estate on a very short string that will decline, as the next administration feels a need for a balance between defense and debt neutral spending? If you are buying now do so but I would link your plan to stay 10 years. If your plan is less than 10 years I would rent. Alternatively, buy something very rentable. Under the flag of builders build and city, government need money I can also say the density on the South Bay is about all I want to contend with it is pretty well stuffed but it will get more stuffed

Realtors are taught to serve their clients by looking back and they would say via the comparables what a home is worth. I suspect those comparables will not be worth much.

Oh, this is a South Bay Blog but in Colorado, there is a large number of empty homes and no one is cutting prices just waiting. It has been that way for years. May be the Federal gov and the NRA will come to the rescue and invest their retirement funds

4:58 PM, March 22, 2008  
Blogger bearmaster said...

There is little "rentable" here - some who cannot sell their homes are asking for rents that are have little to do with real rental rates and more to do with trying to cover the mortgage on the property. The asking price on a 4 unit apartment building in my neighborhood might be something like $1.5 million. Say you divide that by 4, so each unit costs $375,000. A rule of thumb is that the monthly rental is roughly 1/100 of that - $3750. That's about twice what these units actually rent for.

Redondo has been overbuilt with 2 on a lot townhomes that all look alike - there is nothing to make one property stand out from the other, and I expect that they will all tumble down together if housing prices take a big dive.

It's one thing to "plan" to stay 10 years in a place but sometimes real life intervenes and one may be forced to move or need to move. The characteristics of neighborhoods can and do change and a severe economic downturn, should one occur, can change the character of a neighborhood from a desirable place to live to something else, as blight and crime make their ugly appearances.

8:16 PM, March 22, 2008  
Blogger bearmaster said...

I heard back from DataQuick. Their definition of Los Angeles "Beach Cities" is:

Redondo Beach (90277 only)
Hermosa Beach (90254)
Manhattan Beach (90266)
El Segundo (90245)
Playa del Rey (90293)

1:22 PM, March 24, 2008  

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