Sunday, January 20, 2008

Los Angeles Beach Cities Resale Activity for December 2007

Oops, I forgot to include the numbers for the local zip codes! I've edited them in at the bottom of this post.

December ended up being another nightmare month, and more analysts are finally now conceding that this slump will not end soon, according to the January 16 story by L.A. Times writer Peter Y. Hong. At least, not in 2008. Some analysts push off any sign of a recovery until 2009.

Analysts have remarked that there is "very little discretionary buying", the market is now shaped by "people trying to avoid foreclosure, banks trying unload repossessed homes, and builders who need to move houses." Isn't that cheery?

I'm not sure if I agree with USC economist Gary Painter who claims that "we really didn't have past history to judge what [extremely cheap credit leading to dramatic price leaps as unemployment has held low] would do to housing cycles." He is just now figuring out this was unsustainable?

A Hancock Park agent says sales are stalled out now because "sellers think their houses are worth more than they are and buyers think the market hasn't reached its bottom yet." This agent argues that both sides need to "give up" timing the market. Sellers should cut their prices and buyers should be prepared to "ride out short-term price declines."

Well excuse me, but I think I'll pass.

By southland county, median price for ALL new and previously owned homes sold were as follows:

County            Median $     % Chg YOY     Number sold     % Chg YOY
Los Angeles       $470,000      -10.5%        4,430           -47.8%
Orange            $565,000      -10.3%        1,731           -42.0%
Riverside         $355,000      -17.8%        2,503           -44.9%
San Bernardino    $315,000      -14.9%        1,518           -54.8%
San Diego         $430,000      -13.1%        2,468           -35.4%
Ventura           $525,300      -11.0%          590           -42.3%
SOUTHLAND         $425,000      -13.3%       13,240           -45.3%

And here are my monthly charts of RESALE (existing home) activity for December. Quite a bit of sag is developing on these charts. Some of these charts contain my own estimates, since 90245 didn't sell any condos in December and 90266 didn't sell condos a year ago. Long-time readers know I don't place much value in these charts.

This table was added after the initial posting.

Here are the detailed RESALE statistics for the beach cities and some of the surrounding zip codes:

                         SFR   MEDIAN    %YOY    CONDO  MEDIAN   %YOY  
LA/Westchester    90045   14    $715     -3.2%     1     $447     4.7%  
El Segundo        90245    7    $762     15.5%   N/A      N/A     N/A
Hawthorne         90250    7    $510     -1.3%     2     $440    -1.1%  
Hermosa Beach     90254   13    $900    -33.3%     2     $965    +9.4%  
Lawndale          90260    9    $439    -17.9%     4     $378   -13.4%  
Manhattan Beach   90266   18  $1,250    -10.0%     4   $1,020     N/A  
Palos Verdes Pen. 90274   11  $1,195    -14.0%     4     $447     N/A  
Rancho P.V.       90275   16  $1,175    +17.6%     8     $668    +1.3%   
Redondo Beach     90277   13    $950     +2.3%     4     $705    -9.0%   
Redondo Beach     90278   12    $713     -2.0%    19     $685   -10.8%


Blogger Dustin said...

Fusion has a nice 30% haircut already. That tells me it's about time for people to try to catch falling knives and for dead cat bounces. But we've got 18-24 months until bottom if things move normally. However, in some ways, this is playing out faster than I anticipated.

1:34 PM, January 20, 2008  
Blogger bearmaster said...

Dustin, thanks for reminding me. Fusion has a bunch of new green signs up around the neighborhood as if to imply the condos are somehow "green." Also a big sign that says "From the $350's", and a url Cool New Condos. However it just goes to the Centex website and I don't see anything about pricing in the $300's.

I've got to drive by and take some photos!

2:43 PM, January 20, 2008  

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