Friday, February 02, 2007

REPOST: Real Estate $$$ Transacted through January 2007

This is what I get for being a day early. Melissa data made a late update to January data. The data I posted before is not truly accurate. I don't want to leave you with false impressions, so let's see what has changed. If you missed it, you can click here for my very flubbed post!

Overall, little has changed, but the westside and some other areas have rebounded a bit better than I first thought. On a raw sales volume basis, some of the zip codes that still seem weak YOY include 90254, 90277, and 90505. Some zip codes that show a plunge in raw sales volume (maybe the buyers stayed in from the cold) include 90016, 90044, 90056, 90260, 90293, 90303, and 90304. Some zip codes that came close to exceeding what they did last year in terms of sales volume include 90045 and 90732. Zip codes that met or exceeded what they did YOY, some by a substantial amount, include 90047 (L.A.), 90064 (Rancho Park), 90066, 90266 (Manhattan Beach), 90275, 90278 (my home - north Redondo), 90291, 90293, 90302, 90303, 90502, 90503, and 90504.

I am almost positive that the bubble denialists and the soft-landists will start calling this a recovery, so be prepared for it. I remain very very skeptical. Inventory is still there, despite what CAR says, and affordability remains near record lows. What are buyers going to do if they are determined to pay lower prices and sellers refuse to lower their asking prices? Gee, do you think some of them might wait, since there is more inventory to peruse? Do you think some of them might get pissed off and leave the state? That's happening!

The market is "stabilizing" in the area circled in red. Don't be surprised if you hear it!

Here are my corrected beach cities charts. Notice the uptick on the raw data (blue line) - my erroneous chart showed that continuing to point down. The area circled in red in the first chart above is the "stabilization."

Here are my corrected area coverage charts. My comments about what's happening in the overall area still seem valid.

Here are the reposted %YOY change rankings. I think my previous comments about how a YOY number below 0 may not necessarily be indicative of anything unless there is "chronic pain" remain valid.

Real estate on steroids (realtors fat and happy):

90305         79.6%  Inglewood

Doing very well:

90746         12.4%  Carson

Hanging in there!

90303          5.2%  Inglewood
90301-90305    3.3%  Inglewood/Lennox combined
90302          1.2%  Inglewood

Starting to slip-slide away:

90249         -0.5%  Gardena
90502         -0.8%  Torrance
90044         -2.1%  Athens
90037         -4.4%  South Central
90047         -5.5%  South Central
90250         -5.9%  Hawthorne
90066         -7.8%  Mar Vista

Losing a grip:

90062        -11.3%  South Central
90007        -14.6%  South Central
90260        -14.9%  Lawndale
90016        -17.7%  West Adams
90035        -19.4%  West Fairfax
90045        -20.0%  Westchester
90043        -21.5%  Hyde Park, Windsor Hills
90501        -21.6%  Torrance
90301        -22.5%  Inglewood
90008        -23.1%  Baldwin Hills / Leimart Park
90275        -23.3%  Palos Verdes Estates
90019        -23.3%  Country Club Park/Mid City
90230        -23.7%  Culver City
90501-90505  -24.2%  Torrance Combined
90504        -24.7%  Torrance

About to go over a cliff? (Realtors getting hungry!)

90717        -25.2%  Lomita
90018        -25.5%  Jefferson Park
90732        -26.3%  San Pedro/Rancho PV
90278        -28.4%  Redondo Beach (north)
90277-90278  -28.7%  Redondo Beach combined
90277        -29.1%  Redondo Beach (south)
90266        -29.5%  Manhattan Beach
90293        -31.1%  Playa del Rey
90505        -31.8%  Torrance
90503        -31.9%  Torrance
90245        -32.6%  El Segundo
beach cities -33.1%  4 Beach Cities combined
90064        -33.3%  Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills
90232        -33.5%  Culver City
90304        -35.2%  Lennox
90401-90405  -36.1%  Santa Monica combined
90292        -39.4%  Marina del Rey
90291        -42.1%  Venice
90744        -42.5%  Wilmington

Sliding down the cliff (realtors' stomachs are growling):

90036        -45.2%  Park La Brea
90254        -51.1%  Hermosa Beach
90034        -51.7%  Palms
90745        -53.3%  Carson
90056        -55.8%  Ladera Heights
90094        -60.3%  Playa Vista


Blogger stealthcat said...

Thank you for the data processing. That's quite a bit of stuff to crunch through.

I find the following very interesting for the $$transaction chart for the beach cities shows:

5 peaks of the MA. The first 4 are each successively greater than the last. The 2006 peak is not only less than the 2005 peak, but it is also less than the 2004 AND 2003 as well.

I guess I don't know if that's truly significant, but it seems to reinforce the idea that this thing has hit a brick wall.

Superbowl is tomorrow...and we all know how the "spring selling season" likes to start out around that time. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

6:56 PM, February 03, 2007  
Blogger bearmaster said...

I think these charts show the very cyclical nature of the real estate market! Yes, the MA peaks in the second half of the year between July and October, which makes sense if it lags the raw data, which would peak a few months sooner.

Off topic, I think I've discovered a new way to measure market pain in relation to the YOY number but I have to come up with a way to calculate it in Excel. Stay tuned...

8:01 PM, February 03, 2007  

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